Post by FreeKresge on Jan 22, 2024 22:14:48 GMT
In the lead up to the Academy Award nomination announcement, I like to compile various predictions of who will get Academy Award nominations as a test of how predicable they are. In all cases below, the frontrunners are the films predicted to get nominations. The dark horses are the ones that should come close but fall short. If any frontrunner is not nominated, it is likely that a dark horse will take its place. Long shots are films that someone thought of as a possibility, but often just a possibility. Occasionally, they break through with a nomination. It is rare, but not unheard of, for an unmentioned film to get a nomination. Within each category, films are listed in order from the most likely to receive a nomination to the least likely to receive a nomination.
Note that these are predictions. I do not necessarily believe that these are the films that should get nominations. Later today, I will post the films that I believe deserve nominations.
For many of the categories, the individuals who would get the nomination may not have been finalized yet.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
If there were still a variable number of potential nominees in this category, I would predict that there would be nine nominees this year with The Zone of Interest falling short.
There was a lot of unanimity over which films were most likely to be nominated. It looks like most prognosticators just copied the Producers Guild of America (PGA) nominees. It is a stretch to consider Saltburn a dark horse rather than a long shot.
If prognosticators are right, there will be three nominees with a significant amount of dialogue in languages other than English.
Best Achievement in Directing
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Last year, the nominees for Best Original Screenplay were nearly identical to the noninees for Best Director. (The only difference was that Steven Spielberg had a writing collaborator for The Fablemans.) This year, the Adapted Screenplay category is dominant.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Barbie initially campaigned to be in the Original Screenplay category. Instead, the Academy assigned Barbie to the Adapted Screenplay category, which surprised everyone who does not realize that works using pre-existing fictional characters are considered to be adapted. Barbie went from being the favorite to win Original Screenplay to being in a position to be nosed out of a nomination for Adapted Screenplay.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Two years ago, Kristin Stewart went from being the favorite to win this award to struggling to get a nomination. Last year, Michelle Williams went from being a co-favorite to win to struggling to get a nomination. It is a modest exaggeration to say that Margot Robbie is struggling to get a nomination, but she is on the path from being a onetime favorite to "It's an honor just to be nominated."
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Bradley Cooper is on a nine-nomination losing streak. He has a good chance to get three nominations this year and a slight chance to get a fourth. Nobody expects him to win any of them, which would extend his losing streak to 12-13 nominations.
There was a time when Leonardo DiCaprio looked like a sure thing for a nomination. With all the attention going to Lily Gladstone, he may be forgotten this year.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Moore is not very far behind Cruz for the final spot.
There was a time when Vanessa Kirby looked like she would be a lock for a nomination in this category for Napoleon. The fact that she is no longer even mentioned as a candidate shows how far that film has fallen. Also, after seeing Oppenheimer, I expected Florence Pugh to compete with Blunt for a nomination or that they would both be nominated. I liked Blunt's performance a bit better, but I thought that, if anything, Pugh would have the advantage because she had the showier role.
My guess is that the competitors for this award are grateful that Lily Gladstone is being pushed as a lead actress.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Tony Stark may be fighting Bruce Banner (and Norman Osborn) for this award. Nearly all prognosticators believe that Downey Jr. will win easily.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Production Design
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
I have the teams from Maestro and Asteroid City tied for the final nomination.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
For all of the above categories there are a large number of eligible nominees, including ones not mentioned. For all categories below except for Best Animated Feature, potential nominees are drawn from a 10-film or a 15-film shortlist. All unmentioned films or songs are no longer eligible for a nomination. For Best Animated Feature, there is a 33-film shortlist, and not all of the films are mentioned below.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
There is effectively a three-way tie between the teams from Golda, Society of the Snow, and Killers of the Flower Moon for the final two nominations.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is supposed to be John Williams's last score, so I would have expected him to get a nomination on sentiment. Robbie Robertson died last August, so he may have most of the sentimental vote.
Mica Levi and Joe Hisaishi are almost tied for the final nomination.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Normally, producers do not like having multiple songs from the same film competing against each other, so it is unusual that three films (Barbie, The Color Purple, and Flora and Son) have multiple songs making the shortlist. It looks like Barbie will get two nomiations, but the other two films might miss out on getting any nominations.
A film can have three songs make the shortlist, but no more than two songs from the same film may be nominated. This means that "Dance The Night" is not just competing against "It Never Went Away" for a fifth slot. It is also competing against "What Was I Made For?" or "I'm Just Ken" for the second Barbie slot.
Earlier this year, it looked like "I'm Just Ken" and "Peaches" from The Super Mario Bros. Movie would be competing for this award. "What Was I Made For?" appears to have passed "I'm Just Ken" as the favorite for the award, and "Peaches" did not even make the shortlist.
Best Achievement in Sound
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
The teams behind Society of the Snow and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are tied for the final nomination.
Best International Film of the Year
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
In this category, prognosticators tend to overrate films that have already received a decent-sized release in the United States, at least for a film in a language other than English. This suggests that Fallen Leaves may be overrated here. It is the only one of the 15 films listed above that played in a theater near me, although, yesterday, I saw trailers for The Zone of Interest, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers' Lounge.
Some people think that France goofed by submitting The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy of a Fall as the latter would have a real chance of beating The Zone of Interest for the award. On the other hand, The Taste of Things will likely get a nomination anyway, so submitting that film gives it exposure that Anatomy of a Fall will get anyway through likely nominations in other categories.
Best Animated Feature Film
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
It has been five years since the Academy nominated an anime film in this category. It looks like The Boy and the Heron will break that streak.
For a while, this looked like an easy category to handicap. Elemental would take the Pixar spot, Wish would take the Disney spot, Nimona would take the Netflix spot, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse would take the other big American studio spot, and The Boy and the Heron would take the spot reserved for actually great films that are not from giant American studios. Then Wish was released and turned out to be quite mediocre. This left an open spot. Will there be a second big American-studio film (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem or The Super Mario Bros. Movie)? Will it go to a second Netflix film (Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, which might instead beat out Nimona for the Netflix spot)? The producers behind Suzume even believe that there might be a second spot for a film that was actually great despite not coming from a large American Studio. For the record, I believe that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse deserves to be nominated, along with three Japanese films and a Spanish film.
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
This is another category in which prognosticators tend to overrate films that received a decent-sized release (for a documentary) in the United States. However, none of these films appeared in a theater near me, so this is a moot point.
I should warn readers that predictions for short films tend to be rather inaccurate.
Best Animated Short Film
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Documentary Short Subject
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
Camp Courage and Last Song from Kabul are almost tied for the final nomination.
Best Live Action Short Film
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
Having a big name in a Live-Action Short has traditionally been a big help to win this category. With names like Wes Anderson, David Oyelowo, Pedro Almodóvar, Iain Softley, and Alfonso Cuarón directing and or producing these films (with more names like Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, Dev Patel, Ben Kingsley, Ethan Hawke, Pedro Pascal, and John Travolta acting in these films), it looks like Hollywood has figured this out.
The number of films on this shortlist that have appeared in a theater near me is equal to the combined number of films on the shortlists for Best International Film and Best Documentary Feature. Specifically, Strange Way of Life appeared in a theater near me. I decided that I was not going to pay $10.59 for a matinee ticket to see a 30-minute film. If it gets nominated, I probably will be able to pay less to see that film plus four other very good short films as well. This is not certain as Pedro Almodóvar has previously directed a short film that made the shortlist but did not get nominated.
Summary
If all predictions are correct, which will not happen, the total nominations for feature-length films would be:
13 — Oppenheimer
13 — Poor Things
11 — Killers of the Flower Moon
10 — Barbie
7 — Maestro
6 — The Zone of Interest
5 — The Holdovers
3 — American Fiction
3 — Anatomy of a Fall
3 — Society of the Snow
2 — Past Lives
2 — Ferrari
2 — Rustin
2 — American Symphony
2 — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 — The Color Purple
1 — May December
1 — Nyad
1 — 20 Days in Mariupol
1 — Asteroid City
1 — Beyond Utopia
1 — The Boy and the Heron
1 — The Creator
1 — Elemental
1 — Fallen Leaves
1 — Flamin' Hot
1 — Four Daughters
1 — Godzilla Minus One
1 — Golda
1 — Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
1 — Napoleon
1 — Nimona
1 — Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
1 — The Taste of Things
1 — The Teachers' Lounge
1 — Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
If Oppenheimer and/or Poor Things get 13 nominations, they would join ten other films in a tie for fourth among films with the most nominations.
Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie are all projected to get at least ten nominations. If this occurs, it would be the second year that four films receive at least ten nominations. The first time was four years ago when Joker, The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time ...in Hollywood each received at least ten nominations. One thing that all four of those films have in common is that none of them won Best Picture. (Parasite won instead.) This could give hope to fans of Maestro, The Zone of Interest, or The Holdovers.
Note that these are predictions. I do not necessarily believe that these are the films that should get nominations. Later today, I will post the films that I believe deserve nominations.
For many of the categories, the individuals who would get the nomination may not have been finalized yet.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Frontrunners:
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- The Holdovers
- American Fiction
- Maestro
- Past Lives
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses:
- The Color Purple
- Saltburn
Long Shots:
- May December
- All of Us Strangers
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Air
- Origin
- Rustin
- Society of the Snow
- Napoleon
- The Iron Claw
- They Cloned Tyrone
- The Burial
- Ferrari
- Showing Up
If there were still a variable number of potential nominees in this category, I would predict that there would be nine nominees this year with The Zone of Interest falling short.
There was a lot of unanimity over which films were most likely to be nominated. It looks like most prognosticators just copied the Producers Guild of America (PGA) nominees. It is a stretch to consider Saltburn a dark horse rather than a long shot.
If prognosticators are right, there will be three nominees with a significant amount of dialogue in languages other than English.
Best Achievement in Directing
Frontrunners:
- Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
- Greta Gerwig — Barbie
- Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses:
- Alexander Payne — The Holdovers
- Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
Long Shots:
- Celine Song — Past Lives
- Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Cord Jefferson — American Fiction
- Andrew Haigh — All of Us Strangers
- Blitz Bazawule — The Color Purple
- J.A. Bayona — Society of the Snow
- Kelly Reichardt — Showing Up
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners:
- David Hemingson — The Holdovers
- Justine Triet and Arthur Harari — Anatomy of a Fall
- Celine Song — Past Lives
- Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik — May December
- Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer — Maestro
Dark Horses:
- Emerald Fennell — Saltburn
- Alex Convery — Air
Long Shots:
- Aki Kaurismäki — Fallen Leaves
- Hayao Miyazaki — The Boy and the Heron
- Sean Durkin — The Iron Claw
- Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola — Asteroid City
- Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece — Rustin
- Nicole Holofcener — You Hurt My Feelings
- Kristoffer Borgli — Dream Scenario
- Jon Raymond & Kelly Reichardt — Showing Up
Last year, the nominees for Best Original Screenplay were nearly identical to the noninees for Best Director. (The only difference was that Steven Spielberg had a writing collaborator for The Fablemans.) This year, the Adapted Screenplay category is dominant.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners:
- Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
- Tony McNamara — Poor Things
- Cord Jefferson — American Fiction
- Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach — Barbie
- Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Dark Horses:
- Andrew Haigh — All of Us Strangers
- Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest
Long Shots:
- Ava DuVernay — Origin
- Kelly Fremon Craig — Are You There God? It’s Me, Margret.
- Phil Lord & Christopher Miller & Dave Callaham — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Marcus Gardley — The Color Purple
- Andrew Kevin Walker — The Killer
- J. A. Bayona and Bernat Vilaplana & Jaime Marques & Nicolás Casariego — Society of the Snow
- Sofia Coppola — Priscilla
Barbie initially campaigned to be in the Original Screenplay category. Instead, the Academy assigned Barbie to the Adapted Screenplay category, which surprised everyone who does not realize that works using pre-existing fictional characters are considered to be adapted. Barbie went from being the favorite to win Original Screenplay to being in a position to be nosed out of a nomination for Adapted Screenplay.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
- Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Emma Stone — Poor Things
- Carey Mulligan — Maestro
- Margot Robbie — Barbie
- Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Dark Horses:
- Annette Bening — Nyad
- Greta Lee — Past Lives
- Fantasia Barrino — The Color Purple
Long Shots:
- Natalie Portman — May December
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — Origin
- Teyana Taylor — A Thousand and One
- Cailee Spaeny — Priscilla
Two years ago, Kristin Stewart went from being the favorite to win this award to struggling to get a nomination. Last year, Michelle Williams went from being a co-favorite to win to struggling to get a nomination. It is a modest exaggeration to say that Margot Robbie is struggling to get a nomination, but she is on the path from being a onetime favorite to "It's an honor just to be nominated."
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
- Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
- Colman Domingo — Rustin
Dark Horses:
- Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Andrew Scott — All of Us Strangers
- Barry Keoghan — Saltburn
Long Shots:
- Teo Yoo — Past Lives
- Zac Efron — The Iron Claw
- Matt Damon — Air
- Nicolas Cage — Dream Scenario
- Christian Friedel — The Zone of Interest
- Jamie Foxx — The Burial
- Joaquin Phoenix — Napoleon
Bradley Cooper is on a nine-nomination losing streak. He has a good chance to get three nominations this year and a slight chance to get a fourth. Nobody expects him to win any of them, which would extend his losing streak to 12-13 nominations.
There was a time when Leonardo DiCaprio looked like a sure thing for a nomination. With all the attention going to Lily Gladstone, he may be forgotten this year.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
- Jodie Foster — Nyad
- Penélope Cruz — Ferrari
Dark Horses:
- Julianne Moore — May December
- Sandra Hüller — The Zone of Interest
- America Ferrera — Barbie
- Rosamund Pike — Saltburn
Long Shots:
- Claire Foy — All of Us Strangers
- Taraji P. Henson — The Color Purple
- Rachel McAdams — Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.
- Viola Davis — Air
- Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Cara Jade Myers — Killers of the Flower Moon
Moore is not very far behind Cruz for the final spot.
There was a time when Vanessa Kirby looked like she would be a lock for a nomination in this category for Napoleon. The fact that she is no longer even mentioned as a candidate shows how far that film has fallen. Also, after seeing Oppenheimer, I expected Florence Pugh to compete with Blunt for a nomination or that they would both be nominated. I liked Blunt's performance a bit better, but I thought that, if anything, Pugh would have the advantage because she had the showier role.
My guess is that the competitors for this award are grateful that Lily Gladstone is being pushed as a lead actress.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
- Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling — Barbie
- Robert DeNiro — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
- Willem Dafoe — Poor Things
Dark Horses:
- Charles Melton — May December
- Sterling K. Brown — American Fiction
- Dominic Sessa — The Holdovers
Long Shots:
- Paul Mescal — All of Us Strangers
- Milo Machado Graner — Anatomy of a Fall
- Matt Damon — Oppenheimer
- Jacob Elordi — Saltburn
- Jamie Bell — All of Us Strangers
- Colman Domingo — The Color Purple
- Glenn Howerton — Blackberry
- John Magaro — Past Lives
Tony Stark may be fighting Bruce Banner (and Norman Osborn) for this award. Nearly all prognosticators believe that Downey Jr. will win easily.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Frontrunners:
- Hoyte van Hoytema — Oppenheimer
- Rodrigo Prieto — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robbie Ryan — Poor Things
- Matthew Libatique — Maestro
- Łukasz Żal — The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses:
- Rodrigo Prieto — Barbie
- Linus Sandgren — Saltburn
- Edward Lachman — El Conde
Long Shots:
- Dan Laustsen — The Color Purple
- Erik Messerschmidt — Ferrari
- Dariusz Wolski — Napoleon
- Erik Messerschmidt — The Killer
- Eigil Bryid — The Holdovers
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Frontrunners:
- Jennifer Lame — Oppenheimer
- Thelma Schoonmaker — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis — Poor Things
- Kevin Tent — The Holdovers
- Nick Houy — Barbie
Dark Horses:
- Laurent Sénéchal — Anatomy of a Fall
- Paul Watts — The Zone of Interest
- Michelle Tesoro — Maestro
Long Shots:
- Kirk Baxter — The Killer
- Pietro Scalia — Ferrari
- Hilda Rasula — American Fiction
- Jon Poll — The Color Purple
- Keith Fraase — Past Lives
- William Goldenberg — Air
- Michael Andrews — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Achievement in Production Design
Frontrunners:
- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer — Barbie
- Shona Heath, James Price, and Szusza Mihalek — Poor Things
- Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman — Oppenheimer
- Jack Fisk and Adam Willis — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Kevin Thompson and Rena DeAngelo — Maestro
Dark Horses:
- Adam Stockhausen and Kris Moran — Asteroid City
- Chris Oddy, Joanna Kus, and Katarzyna Sikora — The Zone of Interest
- Arthur Max and Elli Griff — Napoleon
Long Shots:
- Suzie Davies and Charlotte Dirickx — Saltburn
- Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales — Wonka
- Paul D. Austerberry and Larry Dias — The Color Purple
- Maria Djurkovic and Sophie Phillips — Ferrari
- Fiona Crombie and Laurent Déry-Lauzier — Beau is Afraid
I have the teams from Maestro and Asteroid City tied for the final nomination.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Frontrunners:
- Jacqueline Durran — Barbie
- Holly Waddington — Poor Things
- Jacqueline West — Killers of the Flower Moon
- David Crossman and Janty Yates — Napoleon
- Ellen Mirojnick — Oppenheimer
Dark Horses:
- Mark Bridges — Maestro
- Francine Jamison-Tanchuck — The Color Purple
- Lindy Hemming — Wonka
Long Shots:
- Stacey Battat — Priscilla
- Colleen Atwood — The Little Mermaid
- Massimo Cantini Parrini — Ferrari
- Ann Roth — Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
- Sophie Canale — Saltburn
- Milena Canonero — Asteroid City
- Malgorzata Karpiuk — The Zone of Interest
For all of the above categories there are a large number of eligible nominees, including ones not mentioned. For all categories below except for Best Animated Feature, potential nominees are drawn from a 10-film or a 15-film shortlist. All unmentioned films or songs are no longer eligible for a nomination. For Best Animated Feature, there is a 33-film shortlist, and not all of the films are mentioned below.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners:
- Kazu Hiro, Sian Grigg, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell — Maestro
- Nadia Stacey, Mark Couler, and Josh Weston — Poor Things
- Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, and Ahou Mofid — Oppenheimer
- Karen Hartley Thomas — Golda
- Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé — Society of the Snow
Dark Horse:
- Thomas Nellen, Siân Grigg, and Kay Georgiou — Killers of the Flower Moon
Long Shots:
- Jana Carboni and Francesco Pegoretti — Napoleon
- Heike Merker — The Last Voyage of the Demeter
- Alda Signoretti, Scott Wheeler, Marcelle Genavese, and Marco Pompei — Ferrari
- Félix Larivière and Colin Penman — Beau Is Afraid
There is effectively a three-way tie between the teams from Golda, Society of the Snow, and Killers of the Flower Moon for the final two nominations.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Frontrunners:
- Ludwig Göransson — Oppenheimer
- Robbie Robertson — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Daniel Pemberton — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Jerskin Fendrix — Poor Things
- Mica Levi — The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses:
- Joe Hisaishi — The Boy and the Heron
Long Shots:
- Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt — Barbie
- Laura Karpman — American Fiction
- John Williams — Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Michael Giacchino — Society of the Snow
- Thomas Newman — Elemental
- Anthony Willis — Saltburn
- Jon Batiste — American Symphony
- Mark Orton — The Holdovers
- Kris Bowers — The Color Purple
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is supposed to be John Williams's last score, so I would have expected him to get a nomination on sentiment. Robbie Robertson died last August, so he may have most of the sentimental vote.
Mica Levi and Joe Hisaishi are almost tied for the final nomination.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Frontrunners:
- "What Was I Made For?" by Billie Eilish and Finneas — Barbie
- "I'm Just Ken" by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt — Barbie
- "Road to Freedom" by Lenny Kravitz — Rustin
- "The Fire Inside" by Diane Warren — Flamin' Hot
- "It Never Went Away" by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson — American Symphony
Dark Horses:
- "Keep It Movin'" by Halle Bailey, Denisia Andrews, Brittany Coney, and Morten Ristorp — The Color Purple
- "Can't Catch Me Now" by Olivia Rodrigo, and Dan Nigro — The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
- "Dance The Night" by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson, and Andrew Wyatt — Barbie
Long Shots:
- "Am I Dreaming" by Leland Wayne, Rakim Mayers, Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, and Landon Wayne — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- "Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)" by The Osage Tribe — Killers of the Flower Moon
- "High Life" by John Carney and Gary Clark — Flora and Son
- "Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)" by Wes Anderson, Jarvis Cocker, and Richard Hawley — Asteroid City
- "Quiet Eyes" by Zach Dawes and Sharon Von Etten — Past Lives
- "Superpower (I)" by Terius Gesteelde-Diamant — The Color Purple
- "Meet In The Middle" by John Carney and Gary Clark — Flora and Son
Normally, producers do not like having multiple songs from the same film competing against each other, so it is unusual that three films (Barbie, The Color Purple, and Flora and Son) have multiple songs making the shortlist. It looks like Barbie will get two nomiations, but the other two films might miss out on getting any nominations.
A film can have three songs make the shortlist, but no more than two songs from the same film may be nominated. This means that "Dance The Night" is not just competing against "It Never Went Away" for a fifth slot. It is also competing against "What Was I Made For?" or "I'm Just Ken" for the second Barbie slot.
Earlier this year, it looked like "I'm Just Ken" and "Peaches" from The Super Mario Bros. Movie would be competing for this award. "What Was I Made For?" appears to have passed "I'm Just Ken" as the favorite for the award, and "Peaches" did not even make the shortlist.
Best Achievement in Sound
Frontrunners:
- Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, Kevin O’Connell, and Willie Burton — Oppenheimer
- Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, and Steve Morrow — Maestro
- Tony Lamberti, Andy Nelson, Lee Orloff, and Bernard Weiser — Ferrari
- Johnnie Burn and Tarn Willers — The Zone of Interest
- John Pritchett, Mark Ulano, and Philip Stockton — Killers of the Flower Moon
Dark Horse:
- Nina Rice, Ai-Ling Lee, Dan Kenyon, and Kevin O’Connell — Barbie
Long Shots:
- Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller, and Stephane Bucher — Napoleon
- Chris Munro, James H. Mather, and Chris Burdon — Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, Stephen Urata, and Drew Kunin — The Killer
- Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic — The Creator
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
- Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould — The Creator
- Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Dan Sudick — Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Kiyoko Shibuya and Takashi Yamazaki — Godzilla Minus One
- Simon Hughes — Poor Things
- Laura Pedro, Felix Bergés, and Pau Costa — Society of the Snow
Dark Horse:
- Michael Lasker, Alan Hawkins, Bret St. Clair, and Pav Grochola — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Long Shots:
- Andrew Whitehurst, Kathy Siegel, Robert Weaver, and Alistair Williams — Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould — Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Charley Henley, Neil Corbould, Luc-ewen Martin-fenouillet, and Simone Coco — Napoleon
- Marcus Taormina, Michael Gaspar, Ken McGaugh, and Robert Winter — Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire
The teams behind Society of the Snow and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are tied for the final nomination.
Best International Film of the Year
Frontrunners:
- United Kingdom — The Zone of Interest
- Spain — Society of the Snow
- France — The Taste of Things
- Germany — The Teachers' Lounge
- Finland — Fallen Leaves
Dark Horses:
- Japan — Perfect Days
- Ukraine — 20 Days in Mariupol
- Mexico — Totem
Long Shots:
- Italy — Io Capitano
- Denmark — The Promised Land
- Morocco — The Mother of All Lies
- Armenia — Amerikatsi
- Tunisia — Four Daughters
- Bhutan — The Monk and the Gun
- Iceland — Godland
In this category, prognosticators tend to overrate films that have already received a decent-sized release in the United States, at least for a film in a language other than English. This suggests that Fallen Leaves may be overrated here. It is the only one of the 15 films listed above that played in a theater near me, although, yesterday, I saw trailers for The Zone of Interest, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers' Lounge.
Some people think that France goofed by submitting The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy of a Fall as the latter would have a real chance of beating The Zone of Interest for the award. On the other hand, The Taste of Things will likely get a nomination anyway, so submitting that film gives it exposure that Anatomy of a Fall will get anyway through likely nominations in other categories.
Best Animated Feature Film
Frontrunners:
- Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, and Christina Steinberg — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki — The Boy and the Heron
- Peter Sohn and Denise Ream — Elemental
- Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Roy Lee, and Karen Ann Ryan — Nimona
- Jeff Rowe, Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, and Kevin Eastman — Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Dark Horses:
- Sam Fell, Steve Pegram, and Leyla Hobart — Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
- Makoto Shinkai, Kōichirō Itō, and Genki Kawamura — Suzume
- Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Chris Meledandri, and Shigeru Miyamoto — The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Long Shots:
- Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn, Peter Del Vecho, and Juan Pablo Reyes Lancaster-Jones — Wish
- Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé, Sandra Tapia Díaz, and Angel Durández — Robot Dreams
- DK Welchman, Hugh Welchman, Sean M. Bobbitt, and Hugh Welchman — The Peasants
- Julien Chheng, Jean-Christophe Roger, Damien Brunner, Didier Brunner, and Stéphan Roelants — Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia
- Robert Marianetti, Robert Smigel, David Wachtenheim, and Adam Sandler — Leo
- Javier Mariscal, Fernando Trueba, and Cristina Huete — They Shot the Piano Player
- Benjamin Renner and Chris Meledandri — Migration
It has been five years since the Academy nominated an anime film in this category. It looks like The Boy and the Heron will break that streak.
For a while, this looked like an easy category to handicap. Elemental would take the Pixar spot, Wish would take the Disney spot, Nimona would take the Netflix spot, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse would take the other big American studio spot, and The Boy and the Heron would take the spot reserved for actually great films that are not from giant American studios. Then Wish was released and turned out to be quite mediocre. This left an open spot. Will there be a second big American-studio film (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem or The Super Mario Bros. Movie)? Will it go to a second Netflix film (Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, which might instead beat out Nimona for the Netflix spot)? The producers behind Suzume even believe that there might be a second spot for a film that was actually great despite not coming from a large American Studio. For the record, I believe that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse deserves to be nominated, along with three Japanese films and a Spanish film.
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners:
- Matthew Heineman, Lauren Domino, and Joedan Okun — American Symphony
- Mstyslav Chernov, Derl McCrudden, Michelle Mizner, and Raney Aronson-Rath — 20 Days in Mariupol
- Madeleine Gavin, Rachel Cohen, Jana Edelbaum, and Sue Mi Terry — Beyond Utopia
- Davis Guggenheim, Jonathan King, and Annetta Marion — Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
- Kaouther Ben Hania, Nadim Cheikhrouha, and Martin Hampel — Four Daughters
Dark Horses:
- Maite Alberdi, Rocío Jadue, Juan de Dios Larraín, Pablo Larraín, and Andrea Undurraga — The Eternal Memory
- Sam Green, Josh Penn, and Thomas O. Kriegsmann — 32 Sounds
Long Shots:
- Nisha Pahuja, David Oppenheim, and Cornelia Principe — To Kill a Tiger
- Nancy Buirski, Simon Kilmurry, Susan Margolin — Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
- Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp, and John Battsek — Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- Lea Glob and Sidsel Lønvig Siersted — Apolonia, Apolonia
- Luke Lorentzen and Kellen Quinn — A Still Small Voice
- Joe Brewster, Michèle Stephenson, and Tommy Oliver — Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- Maciek Hamela and Piotr Grawender — In the Rearview
- Roger Ross Williams, Alia Payne, and David Teague — Stamped from the Beginning
This is another category in which prognosticators tend to overrate films that received a decent-sized release (for a documentary) in the United States. However, none of these films appeared in a theater near me, so this is a moot point.
I should warn readers that predictions for short films tend to be rather inaccurate.
Best Animated Short Film
Frontrunners:
- Dan Abraham, Trent Correy, Yvett Merino, and Brad Simonsen — Once upon a Studio
- Tal Kantor, Pierre Baussaron, Amit R. Gicelter, and Emmanuel-Alain Raynal — Letter to a Pig
- Dave Mullins, Brad Booker, and Sophie Cherry — War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
- Bret 'Brook' Parker and Jake Kaplan — Pete
- Jared Hess, Jerusha Hess, Tori Baker, and Miles David Romney — Ninety-Five Senses
Dark Horses:
- Rita Basulto, Mariana Méndez Alejandre, Angelica Lares, Juan J. Medina, and Marc Pannia — Humo (Smoke)
- Stéphanie Clément — Pachyderme
- Flóra Anna Buda, Pierre Baussaron, Péter Benjámin Lukács, Gábor Osváth, and Emmanuel-Alain Raynal — 27
Long Shots:
- Gabriel Augerai, Romain Augier, Charles Di Cicco, Yannick Jacquin, and Laurie Pereira de Figueiredo — Boom
- Lucija Mrzljak, Morten Tsinakov, Drasko Ivezic, and Kalev Tamm — Eeva
- Priit Tender— Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
- Karni Arieli, Saul Freed, and Jay Woolley — Wild Summon
- Stephen Vuillemin — A Kind of Testament
- John Musker — I’m Hip
- Yegane Moghaddam — Our Uniform
Best Documentary Short Subject
Frontrunners:
- Kris Bowers, Ben Proudfoot, Jeremy Lambert, and Josh Rosenberg — The Last Repair Shop
- Robert J. Lyons, Jeremy Workman, and Melissa Jacobson — Deciding Vote
- Trish Adlesic, Nazenet Habtezghi, and Sheila Nevins — The ABCs of Book Banning
- John Hoffman, Christine Turner, and Christina Avalos — The Barber of Little Rock
- Max Lowe, Katy Chevigny, and Marilyn Ness — Camp Courage
Dark Horse:
- Kevin Macdonald, Katie Buchanan, and Sophie Daniel — Last Song from Kabul
Long Shots:
- Sean Wang, Sam A. Davis, and Malcolm Pullinger — Nai Nai & Wài Pó
- Joe Brewster, Michèle Stephenson, Marquis Daisy, Carolyn Hepburn, and Adam Neuhaus — Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
- Andrew Nadkarni, Swetha Regunathan, and Katie Schiller — Between Earth & Sky
- Justine Martin and Louis-Emmanuel Gagné-Brochu — Oasis
- Ramin Bahrani, Jason Orans, and Pamela Ryan — If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
- Geeta Gandbhir, Samantha M. Knowles, Kathleen Lingo, and Sweta Vohra — How We Get Free
- Giorgio Ghiotto and Eliza Mitnick — Wings of Dust
- S. Leo Chiang, Yulan Chang, Jean Tsien, and Yorke Wu — Island in Between
- Morgane Gaëlle Frund — Bear
Camp Courage and Last Song from Kabul are almost tied for the final nomination.
Best Live Action Short Film
Frontrunners:
- Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, and Steven Rales — The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- Misan Harriman, Nicky Bentham, and David Oyelowo — The After
- Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar, and Esther García — Strange Way of Life
- Mickey Rapkin, Noam Dromi, and Greg Zekowski — The Anne Frank Gift Shop
- Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane — Red, White and Blue
Dark Horse:
- Iain Softley, Alfonso Cuarón, Richard Johns, Bill Kenwright, and Gabriela Rodriguez — The Shepherd
Long Shots:
- Lasse Lyskjær Noer, Kim Magnusson, and Christian Norlyk — Knight of Fortune
- Tom Stuart, Anna Elettra Pizzi De Gaetano, Kay Loxley, and Max Marlow — Good Boy
- Mark Gerstorfer, Lukas Rosatti, Marie-Therese Zumtobel — Invisible Border
- Elham Ehsas, Azeem Bhati, Yiannis Manolopoulos, Dina Mousawi, and Catherine Tschaepe — Yellow
- Ary Zara, Andreia Nunes, and Frederico Serra — An Avocado Pit
- George Siougas, Luke Carroll, and Michael Stevenson — The One Note Man
- Danick Audet, Annie-Claude Caron, Astrid Barrette-Tessier, and Sophie Valcourt — Dead Cat
- Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron — Invincible
- Lisa Cole, Lolia Etomi, Cindy Lu, Jolene Mendes, Benjamin O'Keefe, and Vivian Johnson Rogowski — Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Having a big name in a Live-Action Short has traditionally been a big help to win this category. With names like Wes Anderson, David Oyelowo, Pedro Almodóvar, Iain Softley, and Alfonso Cuarón directing and or producing these films (with more names like Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, Dev Patel, Ben Kingsley, Ethan Hawke, Pedro Pascal, and John Travolta acting in these films), it looks like Hollywood has figured this out.
The number of films on this shortlist that have appeared in a theater near me is equal to the combined number of films on the shortlists for Best International Film and Best Documentary Feature. Specifically, Strange Way of Life appeared in a theater near me. I decided that I was not going to pay $10.59 for a matinee ticket to see a 30-minute film. If it gets nominated, I probably will be able to pay less to see that film plus four other very good short films as well. This is not certain as Pedro Almodóvar has previously directed a short film that made the shortlist but did not get nominated.
Summary
If all predictions are correct, which will not happen, the total nominations for feature-length films would be:
13 — Oppenheimer
13 — Poor Things
11 — Killers of the Flower Moon
10 — Barbie
7 — Maestro
6 — The Zone of Interest
5 — The Holdovers
3 — American Fiction
3 — Anatomy of a Fall
3 — Society of the Snow
2 — Past Lives
2 — Ferrari
2 — Rustin
2 — American Symphony
2 — Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 — The Color Purple
1 — May December
1 — Nyad
1 — 20 Days in Mariupol
1 — Asteroid City
1 — Beyond Utopia
1 — The Boy and the Heron
1 — The Creator
1 — Elemental
1 — Fallen Leaves
1 — Flamin' Hot
1 — Four Daughters
1 — Godzilla Minus One
1 — Golda
1 — Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
1 — Napoleon
1 — Nimona
1 — Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
1 — The Taste of Things
1 — The Teachers' Lounge
1 — Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
If Oppenheimer and/or Poor Things get 13 nominations, they would join ten other films in a tie for fourth among films with the most nominations.
Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie are all projected to get at least ten nominations. If this occurs, it would be the second year that four films receive at least ten nominations. The first time was four years ago when Joker, The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time ...in Hollywood each received at least ten nominations. One thing that all four of those films have in common is that none of them won Best Picture. (Parasite won instead.) This could give hope to fans of Maestro, The Zone of Interest, or The Holdovers.