Post by FreeKresge on Jan 23, 2023 16:31:50 GMT
In the lead up to the Academy Award nomination announcement, I like to compile various predictions of who will get Academy Award nominations as a test of how predicable they are. In all cases below, the frontrunners are the films predicted to get nominations. The dark horses are the ones that should come close but fall short. If any frontrunner is not nominated, it is likely that a dark horse will take its place. Long shots are films that someone thought of as a possibility, but often just a possibility. Occasionally, they break through with a nomination. It is rare, but not unheard of, for an unmentioned film to get a nomination. Within each category, films are listed in order from the most likely to receive a nomination to the least likely to receive a nomination.
Note that these are predictions. I do not necessarily believe that these are the films that should get nominations. Later today, I will post the films that I believe deserve nominations.
For many of the technical categories, the individuals who would get the nomination may not have been finalized yet.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
If there were still a variable number of potential nominees in this category, I would predict that there would be nine nominees this year with The Whale falling short. In fact, Babylon is almost tied with The Whale for the tenth spot.
The is wide agreement that this is a race between Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin for the actual award, although some think that Top Gun: Maverick has a chance to win as well.
Best Achievement in Directing
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Spielberg is the favorite to win this award, but Scheinert and Kwan have a chance, especially if Everything Everywhere All at Once surges.
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
All Quiet on the Western Front is not far behind She Said for the final spot.
This is probably the best chance for Women Talking to get a nomination and to win an award. The film would probably do better if it had more than a very limited release in the United States before nomination ballots were due. I know that Academy members can stream most candidate films, but the members still have friends and family members who are not part of the Academy but still give the Academy members recommendations and influence their vote. Most of these friends and family members did not have the opportunity to see Women Talking.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
Last year, there was a time early in the awards season when Kristen Stewart was viewed as a clear favorite to win this award. By this time last year, she was struggling just to get a nomination. Early in the awards season this year, Michelle Williams was viewed as a co-favorite to win this award along with Blanchett and Yeoh. Now, she is struggling to hold off de Armas for the fifth slot. Part of the reason is that Williams is campaigning for a lead actress spot when many think that she really was a supporting actress in her film.
Nearly everyone thinks that this is a two-woman race between Blanchett and Yeoh for the actual award.
Normally, the previous year's Best Actor winner presents the Best Actress award. For some reason, I suspect that last year's Best Actor winner, Will Smith, might not attend this year's ceremonies. I think that the Academy should instead have the world's most popular actor announce this award instead: 
If you do not recognize this person, he is comic actor turned Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
For the award itself, this is viewed as a two-person race between Fraser and Farrell with Fraser being the modest favorite. Many people like his comeback story. Some people think that Butler had a chance for a surprise victory. Nighy is considered to be very likely to be nominated. However, hardly anyone thinks that he will win even though this category likes to honor actors with long careers.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Bassett is the favorite to win this award, but Curtis and perhaps Condon have a chance, particularly if their films surge in popularity. Curtis might be hurt by having some of her film's support split with Hsu. Both Bassett and Curtis are seen as being overdue. If Bassett wins, she would be the first person to win an Academy Award for acting in an MCU film.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
For the awards up to this point, there is sometimes a tentative favorite (e.g., Spielberg for director, Bassett for supporting actress), but, even in those races, there are one or two others who have a real chance to win. This is the first category with an overwhelming favorite to win. Quan has a great story about how he quit acting for a couple of decades due to a lack of good roles for Asian-American actors only to make a comeback with Everything Everywhere All at Once. It does not hurt that there is a real possibility that each of his competitors will have a co-star from the same film competing for votes. Quan also has a minor but real benefit of actually having delivered the best performance by an actor in a supporting role.
There is a real possibility that all ten nominees for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor will be first-time nominees.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Production Design
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
For all of the above categories there are a large number of eligible nominees, including ones not mentioned. For all categories below except for Best Animated Feature, potential nominees are drawn from a 10-film or a 15-film shortlist. All unmentioned films or songs are no longer eligible for a nomination. For Best Animated Feature, there is a 27-film shortlist, and not all of them are mentioned below.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
There is a lot of speculation that the producers of the ceremony are all hoping to have Rihanna and Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift and The Weeknd and Selena Gomez performing at the ceremony.
Best Achievement in Sound
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
The team behind Everything Everywhere All at Once and the team behind The Batman are nearly tied for the final spot.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
Dark Horse:
Long Shots:
Best International Film of the Year
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
In this category, prognosticators tend to overrate films that have already received a decent-sized release in the United States, at least for a film in a language other than English. All Quiet on the Western Front is probably going to get nominated (and win) anyway, but Decision to Leave may be overrated here. I also suspect that a bit too much weight is being put on Argentina, 1985's Golden Globe win.
Many people think that India goofed in submitting Last Film Show instead of RRR.
Best Animated Feature Film
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
I would like to remind the Academy that there are a lot of great animated films coming out of Japan. The Academy &$*%ed up last year by neglecting Belle. I hope that that they do not do the same with Inu-Oh.
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
This is another category in which prognosticators tend to overrate films that received a decent-sized release (for a documentary) in the United States. In this case, Fire of Love might be overrated.
I should warn readers that predictions for short films tend to be rather inaccurate.
Best Animated Short Film
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
As I type this, I am wondering if the title of Sara Gunnarsdóttir's film will trigger one of this site's interesting filters.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
Best Live Action Short Film
Frontrunners:
Dark Horses:
Long Shots:
I have Nakam and Ivalu tied for the final nomination.
Summary
If all predictions are correct, which will not happen, the total nominations for feature-length films would be:
10 — The Fabelmans
9 — Everything Everywhere All at Once
8 — The Banshees of Inisherin
8 — Elvis
6 — Avatar: The Way of Water
6 — All Quiet on the Western Front
6 — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6 — Top Gun: Maverick
5 — The Whale
4 — Tár
3 — Women Talking
3 — Babylon
3 — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 — Living
2 — The Woman King
2 — The Batman
1 — Aftersun
1 — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
1 — She Said
1 — Till
1 — Triangle of Sadness
1 — All That Breathes
1 — All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
1 — Argentina, 1985
1 — Close
1 — Decision to Leave
1 — Descendant
1 — Empire of Light
1 — EO
1 — Fire of Love
1 — Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
1 — Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
1 — Navalny
1 — Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
1 — RRR
1 — Tell It Like a Woman
1 — Turning Red
1 — Wendell & Wild
Note that these are predictions. I do not necessarily believe that these are the films that should get nominations. Later today, I will post the films that I believe deserve nominations.
For many of the technical categories, the individuals who would get the nomination may not have been finalized yet.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Frontrunners:
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Tár
- Elvis
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Women Talking
- The Whale
Dark Horses:
- Babylon
- Triangle of Sadness
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- RRR
- The Woman King
Long Shots:
- Aftersun
- Living
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- She Said
- Empire of Light
- Till
- A Man Called Otto
If there were still a variable number of potential nominees in this category, I would predict that there would be nine nominees this year with The Whale falling short. In fact, Babylon is almost tied with The Whale for the tenth spot.
The is wide agreement that this is a race between Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin for the actual award, although some think that Top Gun: Maverick has a chance to win as well.
Best Achievement in Directing
Frontrunners:
- Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
- Daniel Scheinert and Dan Kwan — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Todd Field — Tár
- James Cameron — Avatar: The Way of Water
Dark Horses:
- Edward Berger — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Baz Luhrmann — Elvis
- Joseph Kosinski — Top Gun: Maverick
- Sarah Polley — Women Talking
Long Shots:
- S. S. Rajamouli — RRR
- Ruben Östlund — Triangle of Sadness
- Park Chan-wook — Decision to Leave
- Charlotte Wells — Aftersun
- Damien Chazelle — Babylon
- Gina Prince-Bythewood — The Woman King
- Guillermo del Toro — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu — Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Spielberg is the favorite to win this award, but Scheinert and Kwan have a chance, especially if Everything Everywhere All at Once surges.
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners:
- Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Todd Field — Tár
- Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
- Ruben Östlund — Triangle of Sadness
Dark Horses:
- Charlotte Wells — Aftersun
- Baz Luhrmann & Sam Bromell and Craig Pearce and Jeremy Doner — Elvis
Long Shots:
- Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong Jeong — Decision to Leave
- Seith Reiss & Will Tracy — The Menu
- Damien Chazelle — Babylon
- Jordan Peele — Nope
- James Gray — Armageddon Time
- Maria Bello and Dana Stevens — The Woman King
- Sam Mendes — Empire of Light
- Michael Reilly & Keith Beauchamp and Chinonye Chukwu — Till
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners:
- Sarah Polley — Women Talking
- Rian Johnson — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Kazuo Ishiguro — Living
- Samuel D. Hunter — The Whale
- Rebecca Lenkiewicz — She Said
Dark Horses:
- Edward Berger & Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie — Top Gun: Maverick
- Guillermo del Toro and Patrick McHale and Matthew Robbins — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Long Shots:
- Noah Baumbach — White Noise
- Dean Fleischer-Camp and Jenny Slate and Nick Paley — Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- James Cameron & Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silverman — Avatar: The Way of Water
- David Kajganich — Bones & All
- Colm Bairéad — The Quiet Girl
- Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller — The Son
- David Magee — A Man Called Otto
All Quiet on the Western Front is not far behind She Said for the final spot.
This is probably the best chance for Women Talking to get a nomination and to win an award. The film would probably do better if it had more than a very limited release in the United States before nomination ballots were due. I know that Academy members can stream most candidate films, but the members still have friends and family members who are not part of the Academy but still give the Academy members recommendations and influence their vote. Most of these friends and family members did not have the opportunity to see Women Talking.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
- Cate Blanchett — Tár
- Michelle Yeoh — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Danielle Deadwyler — Till
- Viola Davis — The Woman King
- Michelle Williams — The Fabelmans
Dark Horse:
- Ana de Armas — Blonde
Long Shots:
- Olivia Colman — Empire of Light
- Emma Thompson — Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
- Andrea Riseborough — To Leslie
- Margot Robbie — Babylon
- Jennifer Lawrence — Causeway
- Jessica Chastain — The Good Nurse
Last year, there was a time early in the awards season when Kristen Stewart was viewed as a clear favorite to win this award. By this time last year, she was struggling just to get a nomination. Early in the awards season this year, Michelle Williams was viewed as a co-favorite to win this award along with Blanchett and Yeoh. Now, she is struggling to hold off de Armas for the fifth slot. Part of the reason is that Williams is campaigning for a lead actress spot when many think that she really was a supporting actress in her film.
Nearly everyone thinks that this is a two-woman race between Blanchett and Yeoh for the actual award.
Normally, the previous year's Best Actor winner presents the Best Actress award. For some reason, I suspect that last year's Best Actor winner, Will Smith, might not attend this year's ceremonies. I think that the Academy should instead have the world's most popular actor announce this award instead:
If you do not recognize this person, he is comic actor turned Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
- Brendan Fraser — The Whale
- Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Austin Butler — Elvis
- Bill Nighy — Living
- Paul Mescal — Aftersun
Dark Horses:
- Tom Cruise — Top Gun: Maverick
- Adam Sandler — Hustle
Long Shots:
- Hugh Jackman — The Son
- Tom Hanks — A Man Called Otto
- Gabriel LaBelle — The Fabelmans
- Jeremy Pope — The Inspection
- Fellix Kammerer — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Daniel Kaluuya — Nope
- Daniel Craig — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Brendan Gleeson — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Diego Calva — Babylon
For the award itself, this is viewed as a two-person race between Fraser and Farrell with Fraser being the modest favorite. Many people like his comeback story. Some people think that Butler had a chance for a surprise victory. Nighy is considered to be very likely to be nominated. However, hardly anyone thinks that he will win even though this category likes to honor actors with long careers.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
- Angela Bassett — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Stephanie Hsu — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Hong Chau — The Whale
Dark Horses:
- Dolly de Leon — Triangle of Sadness
- Jessie Buckley — Women Talking
Long Shots:
- Janelle Monáe — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Carey Mulligan — She Said
- Nina Hoss — Tár
- Michelle Williams — The Fabelmans
- Claire Foy — Women Talking
- Lashana Lynch — The Woman King
Bassett is the favorite to win this award, but Curtis and perhaps Condon have a chance, particularly if their films surge in popularity. Curtis might be hurt by having some of her film's support split with Hsu. Both Bassett and Curtis are seen as being overdue. If Bassett wins, she would be the first person to win an Academy Award for acting in an MCU film.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
- Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Brendan Gleeson — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Barry Keoghan — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Paul Dano — The Fabelmans
- Judd Hirsch — The Fabelmans
Dark Horses:
- Eddie Redmayne — The Good Nurse
- Brad Pitt — Babylon
- Ben Whishaw — Women Talking
Long Shots:
- Brian Tyree Henry — Causeway
- Tom Hanks — Elvis
- Woody Harrelson — Triangle of Sadness
- Anthony Hopkins — Armageddon Time
- Colin Farrell — The Batman
- Micheal Ward — Empire of Light
- Val Kilmer — Top Gun: Maverick
- Daniel Brühl — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Albrecht Schuch — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Armageddon Time — Bones and All
For the awards up to this point, there is sometimes a tentative favorite (e.g., Spielberg for director, Bassett for supporting actress), but, even in those races, there are one or two others who have a real chance to win. This is the first category with an overwhelming favorite to win. Quan has a great story about how he quit acting for a couple of decades due to a lack of good roles for Asian-American actors only to make a comeback with Everything Everywhere All at Once. It does not hurt that there is a real possibility that each of his competitors will have a co-star from the same film competing for votes. Quan also has a minor but real benefit of actually having delivered the best performance by an actor in a supporting role.
There is a real possibility that all ten nominees for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor will be first-time nominees.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Frontrunners:
- Claudio Miranda — Top Gun: Maverick
- Roger Deakins — Empire of Light
- Mandy Walker — Elvis
- Janusz Kaminski — The Fabelmans
- Russell Carpenter — Avatar: The Way of Water
Dark Horses:
- James Friend — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Greig Fraser — The Batman
- Linus Sandgren — Babylon
Long Shots:
- Darius Khondji — Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
- Florian Hoffmeister — Tár
- Hoyte Van Hoytema — Nope
- Ben Davis — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Larkin Seiple — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Frontrunners:
- Eddie Hamilton — Top Gun: Maverick
- Paul Rogers — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa — Elvis
- Sven Budelmann — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn — The Fabelmans
Dark Horses:
- David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin — Avatar: The Way of Water
- Mikkel E.G. Nielsen — The Banshees of Inisherin
Long Shots:
- Monika Willi — Tár
- Tom Cross — Babylon
- Kelley Dixon, Jennifer Lame, and Michael P. Shawver — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Bob Ducsay — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Terilyn A. Shropshire — The Woman King
- Brett Morgen — Moonage Daydream
- Ruben Östlund and Mikel Cee Karlsson — Triangle of Sadness
- Christopher Donaldson and Roslyn Kalloo — Women Talking
Best Achievement in Production Design
Frontrunners:
- Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino — Babylon
- Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, and Bev Dunn — Elvis
- Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, and Vanessa Cole — Avatar: The Way of Water
- Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara — The Fabelmans
Dark Horses:
- Jason Isvarday and Kelsi Ephraim — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper — All Quiet on the Western Front
Long Shots:
- Guy Davis and Curt Enderie — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Jeremy Hindle and Jan Pascale — Top Gun: Maverick
- James Chinlund and Lee Sandales — The Batman
- Rick Heinrichs and Elli Griff — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Ruth De Jong and Gene Serdena — Nope
- Jess Gonchor and Claire Kaufman — White Noise
- Mark Tildesley and Michael Standish — The Banshees of Inisherin
- Mark Tildesley and Kamlan Man — Empire of Light
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Frontrunners:
- Catherine Martin — Elvis
- Ruth E. Carter — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Mary Zophres — Babylon
- Gersha Phillips — The Woman King
- Jenny Beavan — Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Dark Horses:
- Shirley Kurata — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Sandy Powell — Living
Long Shots:
- Mark Bridges — The Fabelmans
- Lisy Christi — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Monika Buttinger — Corsage
- Jenny Eagan — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Arianne Phillips — Don’t Worry Darling
- J.R. Hawbaker and Albert Wolsky — Amsterdam
- Quita Alfred — Women Talking
- Bina Daigeler — Tár
- Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh — The Banshees of Inisherin
For all of the above categories there are a large number of eligible nominees, including ones not mentioned. For all categories below except for Best Animated Feature, potential nominees are drawn from a 10-film or a 15-film shortlist. All unmentioned films or songs are no longer eligible for a nomination. For Best Animated Feature, there is a 27-film shortlist, and not all of them are mentioned below.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners:
- Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley — The Whale
- Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Louise Coulston — Elvis
- Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir — The Batman
- Heike Merker — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Joel Harlow — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dark Horses:
- Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh — Babylon
- Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh — Blonde
Long Shots:
- Alexandra Anger and Evi Zafiropoulou — Crimes of the Future
- Nana Fischer, Lori McCoy Bell, and Adruitha Lee — Amsterdam
- Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh — Emancipation
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Frontrunners:
- Justin Hurwitz — Babylon
- John Williams — The Fabelmans
- Hildur Guðnadóttir — Women Talking
- Alexandre Desplat — Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
- Carter Burwell — The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark Horses:
- Volker Bertelmann — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Simon Franglen — Avatar: The Way of Water
Long Shots:
- Ludwig Göransson — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Son Lux — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Terence Blanchard — The Woman King
- Michael Abels — Nope
- Nicholas Britell — She Said
- Chanda Dancy — Devotion
- Nathan Johnson — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- John Powell — Don’t Worry Darling
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Frontrunners:
- “Naatu Naatu” by Chandrabose & M. M. Keeravani — RRR
- “Lift Me Up” by Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- “Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga & Michael ‘BloodPop’ Tucker — Top Gun: Maverick
- “Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz and Guillermo del Toro — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- “Applause” by Diane Warren — Tell It Like a Woman
Dark Horses:
- “Carolina” by Taylor Swift — Where the Crawdads Sing
- “New Body Rhumba” by James Murphy — White Noise
- “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” by Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia & Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye — Avatar: The Way of Water
Long Shots:
- “Good Afternoon” by Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick — Spirited
- “Stand Up” by Jazmine Sullivan and D’Mile — Till
- “This Is a Life” by David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski — Everything Everywhere All at Once
- “Til You’re Home” by Rita Wilson — A Man Called Otto
- “My Mind & Me” by Amy Allen, Jonathan Bellion, Selena Gomez, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson & Michael Pollack — Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
- “Dust & Ash” by J. Ralph — The Voice of Dust and Ash
- “Time” by Drake, Giveon Evans, Jahaan Akil Sweet and Daniel Pemberton — Amsterdam
There is a lot of speculation that the producers of the ceremony are all hoping to have Rihanna and Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift and The Weeknd and Selena Gomez performing at the ceremony.
Best Achievement in Sound
Frontrunners:
- Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor — Top Gun: Maverick
- Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson, and Julian Howarth — Avatar: The Way of Water
- David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller — Elvis
- Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, and Viktor Prášil — All Quiet on the Western Front
- Brent Kiser, Andrew Twite, Stephen Nelson, Alexandra Fehrman, and Ian Chase — Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark Horse:
- Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and William Files — The Batman
Long Shots:
- Steven Morrow, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Andy Nelson, and Ai-Ling Lee — Babylon
- Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker, and Brandon Proctor — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Scott Martin Gershin, Jon Taylor, and Frank A. Montano — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Paul Massey, David Giammarco, John Warhurst, and Nina Harstone — Moonage Daydream
The team behind Everything Everywhere All at Once and the team behind The Batman are nearly tied for the final spot.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
- Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett — Avatar: The Way of Water
- Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, and Bryan Litson — Top Gun: Maverick
- Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy — The Batman
- Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang, and Dan Sudick — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold, and Kamil Jafar — All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse:
- Janek Sirrs, Theo Bialek, Erik Winquist, and Chris Corbould — Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Long Shots:
- Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan, and Scott R. Fisher — Nope
- Jason Billington, Brian Cox, and Bruce Bright — Thirteen Lives
- David Vickery, Alex Wuttke, Paul Corbould, and Neal Scanlan — Jurassic World Dominion
- Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze, and Alistair Williams — Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Best International Film of the Year
Frontrunners:
- Germany — All Quiet on the Western Front
- South Korea — Decision to Leave
- Belgium — Close
- Argentina — Argentina, 1985
- Poland — EO
Dark Horses:
- Mexico — Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
- Ireland — The Quiet Girl
Long Shots:
- France — Saint Omer
- Cambodia — Return to Seoul
- Denmark — Holy Spider
- Austria — Corsage
- Pakistan — Joyland
- India — Last Film Show
- Morocco — The Blue Caftan
- Sweden — Cairo Conspiracy
In this category, prognosticators tend to overrate films that have already received a decent-sized release in the United States, at least for a film in a language other than English. All Quiet on the Western Front is probably going to get nominated (and win) anyway, but Decision to Leave may be overrated here. I also suspect that a bit too much weight is being put on Argentina, 1985's Golden Globe win.
Many people think that India goofed in submitting Last Film Show instead of RRR.
Best Animated Feature Film
Frontrunners:
- Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Dean Fleischer-Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey — Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins — Turning Red
- Joel Crawford and Mark Swift — Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- Henry Selick, Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, and Jordan Peele — Wendell & Wild
Dark Horses:
- Nora Twomey, Bonnie Curtis, Julie Lynn, Tomm Moore, and Paul Young — My Father’s Dragon
- Masaaki Yuasa, Fumie Takeuchi, and Eunyoung Choi — Inu-Oh
- Don Hall and Roy Conli — Strange World
Long Shots:
- Rebecca Huntley, Damon Ross, and Pierre Perifel — The Bad Guys
- Richard Linklater, Mike Blizzard, Bruno Felix, Tommy Pallotta, and Femke Wolting — Apollo 10½: A Space Age Childhood
- Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger — The Sea Beast
- Kyle Balda, Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy, and Chris Renaud — Minions: The Rise of Gru
- Angus MacLane and Galyn Susman — Lightyear
I would like to remind the Academy that there are a lot of great animated films coming out of Japan. The Academy &$*%ed up last year by neglecting Belle. I hope that that they do not do the same with Inu-Oh.
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners:
- Shaunak Sen, Teddy Leifer, and Aman Mann — All That Breathes
- Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, and John S. Lyons — All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, and Ina Fichman — Fire of Love
- Daniel Roher, Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, and Odessa Rae — Navalny
- Margaret Brown, Essie Chambers, and Kyle Martin — Descendant
Dark Horses:
- Matthew Heineman and Caitlin McNally — Retrograde
- David Siev, Jude Harris, Diane-Moy Quon, and Katarina Vasquez — Bad Axe
- Brett Morgen — Moonage Daydream
Long Shots:
- Alex Pritz, Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, and Gabriel Uchida — The Territory
- Ondi Timoner and David Turner — Last Flight Home
- Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine — Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song
- Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström — A House Made of Splinters
- Tia Lessin, Emma Pildes, Daniel Arcana, and Jessica Levin — The Janes
- Ha Le Diem, Swann Dubus, and Phuong Thao Tran — Children of the Mist
- Tia Lessin, Emma Pildes, Daniel Arcana, and Jessica Levin — Hidden Letters
This is another category in which prognosticators tend to overrate films that received a decent-sized release (for a documentary) in the United States. In this case, Fire of Love might be overrated.
I should warn readers that predictions for short films tend to be rather inaccurate.
Best Animated Short Film
Frontrunners:
- Peter Baynton — The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
- Jérémie Balais, Raul Domingo, and Jeffig Le Bars — New Moon
- Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby — The Flying Sailor
- Sara Gunnarsdóttir — My Year of Dicks
- Lachlan Pendragon — An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Dark Horses:
- João Gonzalez — Ice Merchants
- Spencer Susser — Save Ralph
- Amy Bench — More than I Want to Remember
Long Shots:
- Robert-Jonathan Koeyers — It’s Nice in Here
- Spela Cadez — Steakhouse
- Uri Lotan — Black Slide
- Laura Gonçalves — The Garbage Man
- Juan Pablo Zaramella — Passenger
- Elizabeth Hobbs — The Debutante
- Sander Joon — Sierra
As I type this, I am wondering if the title of Sara Gunnarsdóttir's film will trigger one of this site's interesting filters.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Frontrunners:
- Sharon Liese and Cynthia Wade — The Flagmakers
- Frank Chi, Trayvon Free, and Samir Hernandez — 38 at the Garden
- Gabriela Osio Vanden and Jack Weisman — Nuisance Bear
- Kartiki Gonsalves — The Elephant Whisperers
- Anne Alvergue, Beth Levison, and Judith Mizrachy — The Martha Mitchell Effect
Dark Horses:
- Rivkah Beth Medow and Jen Rainin — Holding Moses
- Jay Rosenblatt — How Do You Measure a Year?
- Tanaz Eshaghian and Christoph Jörg — As Far as They Can Run
- Maxim Arbugaev and Evgenia Arbugaeva — Haulout
- Joshua Seftel — Stranger at the Gate
Long Shots:
- Cinque Northern — Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison
- Sarah McCarthy — Anastasia
- Herb Ferrette and Andrew Abrahams — American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton
- Weixi Chen and Kai Wei — Happiness Is £4 Million
- Titus Kaphar and Alex Mallis — Shut Up and Paint
Best Live Action Short Film
Frontrunners:
- Tom Berkeley and Ross White — An Irish Goodbye
- Alice Rohrwacher — Le Pupille
- Dania Bdeir — Warsha
- Cyrus Neshvad — The Red Suitcase
- Andreas Kessler — Nakam
Dark Horses:
- Anders Walter — Ivalu
- Nils Keller — Almost Home
Long Shots:
- Filipe Melo — The Lone Wolf
- Santiago Requejo — All in Favor
- Carlos Segundo — Sideral
- Eirik Tveiten — Night Ride
- Álvaro Carmona — The Treatment
- Beatriz Silva — Tula
- Jose Pozo — Plastic Killer
- Adrian Moyse Dullin — The Right Words
I have Nakam and Ivalu tied for the final nomination.
Summary
If all predictions are correct, which will not happen, the total nominations for feature-length films would be:
10 — The Fabelmans
9 — Everything Everywhere All at Once
8 — The Banshees of Inisherin
8 — Elvis
6 — Avatar: The Way of Water
6 — All Quiet on the Western Front
6 — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6 — Top Gun: Maverick
5 — The Whale
4 — Tár
3 — Women Talking
3 — Babylon
3 — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 — Living
2 — The Woman King
2 — The Batman
1 — Aftersun
1 — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
1 — She Said
1 — Till
1 — Triangle of Sadness
1 — All That Breathes
1 — All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
1 — Argentina, 1985
1 — Close
1 — Decision to Leave
1 — Descendant
1 — Empire of Light
1 — EO
1 — Fire of Love
1 — Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
1 — Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
1 — Navalny
1 — Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
1 — RRR
1 — Tell It Like a Woman
1 — Turning Red
1 — Wendell & Wild
I'll be spending next weekend with some family I like and trying to avoid any remotely controversial conversations with others that I spend the rest of the year avoiding 