Post by FreeKresge on Feb 7, 2022 23:31:54 GMT
In the lead up to the Academy Award nomination announcement, I like to compile various predictions of who will get Academy Award nominations as a test of how predicable they are. In all cases below, the frontrunners are the films predicted to get nominations. The dark horses are the ones that should come close but fall short. If any frontrunner is not nominated, it is likely that a dark horse will take its place. Long shots are films that someone thought of as a possibility, but often just a possibility. Occasionally, they break through with a nomination. Note that these are predictions. I do not necessarily believe that these are the films that should get nominations.
For many of the technical categories, the individuals who would get the nomination may not have been finalized yet.
As always, I will tease you by starting with Best Picture even though I know that you are most interested in knowing who will be nominated for Best Live-Action Short.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Frontrunners:
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Dune
West Side Story
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Tick, Tick … Boom!
Nightmare Alley
Dark Horses:
Being the Ricardos
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
Long Shots:
No Time to Die
House of Gucci
Spencer
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Parallel Mothers
The French Dispatch
Cyrano
The Worst Person in the World
Mass
A Hero
The Green Knight
Passing
C’mon C’mon
Pig
For this year, the number of Best Picture nominations is fixed at ten as opposed to a variable number over the last several years. If there were a variable number of nominations this year, I would predict that Nightmare Alley and maybe Tick, Tick … Boom! would have been left out. Being the Ricardos and The Tragedy of Macbeth are not far behind Nightmare Alley.
Best Achievement in Directing
Frontrunners:
Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog
Denis Villeneuve — Dune
Kenneth Branagh — Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson — Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg — West Side Story
Dark Horse:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi — Drive My Car
Long Shots:
Adam McKay — Don’t Look Up
Guillermo del Toro — Nightmare Alley
Maggie Gyllenhaal — The Lost Daughter
Joel Coen — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Pedro Almodóvar — Parallel Mothers
Reinaldo Marcus Green — King Richard
Julia Ducournau — Titane
Aaron Sorkin — Being the Ricardos
Siân Heder — CODA
Ridley Scott — House of Gucci
Apichatpong Weerasethakul — Memoria
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Paul Thomas Anderson — Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh — Belfast
Adam McKay & David Sirota — Don’t Look Up
Aaron Sorkin — Being the Ricardos
Zach Baylin — King Richard
Dark Horses:
Pedro Almodóvar — Parallel Mothers
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, & Jason Schwartzman — The French Dispatch
Mike Mills — C’mon C’mon
Long Shots:
Fran Kranz — Mass
Asghar Farhadi — A Hero
Michael Sarnoski — Pig
Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch — Red Rocket
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt — The Worst Person in the World
Paolo Sorrentino — The Hand of God
Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright — Last Night in Soho
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal — The Lost Daughter
Siân Heder — CODA
Tony Kushner — West Side Story
Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth — Dune
Dark Horses:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe — Drive My Car
Joel Coen — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Rebecca Hall — Passing
Long Shots:
Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan — Nightmare Alley
Steven Levenson — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Erica Schmidt — Cyrano
Dune and Drive My Car are nearly tied for the fifth spot.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman — The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga — House of Gucci
Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Kristen Stewart — Spencer
Dark Horses:
Penélope Cruz — Parallel Mothers
Jennifer Hudson — Respect
Alana Haim — Licorice Pizza
Rachel Zegler — West Side Story
Long Shots:
Renate Reinsve — The Worst Person in the World
Frances McDormand — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jennifer Lawrence — Don’t Look Up
Emilia Jones — CODA
Tessa Thompson — Passing
There was a time when Kristen Stewart was viewed as a clear favorite to win this award. She is now struggling just to get a nomination.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Will Smith — King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch — The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Denzel Washington — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem — Being the Ricardos
Dark Horses:
Peter Dinklage — Cyrano
Leonardo DiCaprio — Don’t Look Up
Nicolas Cage — Pig
Bradley Cooper — Nightmare Alley
Long Shots:
Joaquin Phoenix — C'mon, C'mon
Mahershala Ali — Swan Song
Cooper Hoffman — Licorice Pizza
Simon Rex — Red Rocket
Clifton Collins, Jr. — Jockey
Jude Hill — Belfast
Anthony Ramos — In the Heights
Hidetoshi Nishijima — Drive My Car
Matt Damon — The Last Duel
Adam Driver — Annette
So far, Cyrano had only the minimum release in the United States necessary to be eligible for Academy Awards. I suspect that this decision may have cost Peter Dinklage an Academy Award nomination as well as a couple nominations in categories listed below.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Ariana DeBose — West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst — The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe — Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis — King Richard
Ruth Negga — Passing
Dark Horses:
Cate Blanchett — Nightmare Alley
Rita Moreno — West Side Story
Long Shots:
Marlee Matlin — CODA
Jessie Buckley — The Lost Daughter
Ann Dowd — Mass
Judi Dench — Belfast
Frances McDormand — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Olga Merediz — In the Heights
Cate Blanchett — Don’t Look Up
Riley Keough — Zola
Kathryn Hunter — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Kodi Smit-McPhee — The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur — CODA
Ciaran Hinds — Belfast
Jared Leto — House of Gucci
Bradley Cooper — Licorice Pizza
Dark Horses:
Jamie Dornan — Belfast
Jesse Plemons — The Power of the Dog
Ben Affleck — The Tender Bar
J.K. Simmons — Being the Ricardos
Long Shots:
Mike Faist — West Side Story
Tony Leung — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Jeffrey Wright — The French Dispatch
Kelvin Harrison Jr. — Cyrano
Benicio del Toro — The French Dispatch
The Golden Raspberry Awards nominated Jared Leto for worst supporting actor for his performance in House of Gucci. If he is nominated here as well, this would not be the first time that an actor was nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie for the same performance. James Coco was nominated for both awards for Only When I Laugh (1981). Amy Irving was nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie for Best/Worst Supporting Actress in Yentl (1983). Most recently, Glenn Close was nominated in both categories for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy (2020).
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Frontrunners:
Greig Fraser — Dune
Ari Wegner — The Power of the Dog
Bruno Delbonnel — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Haris Zambarloukos — Belfast
Janusz Kamiński — West Side Story
Dark Horse:
Dan Laustsen — Nightmare Alley
Long Shots:
Linus Sandgren — No Time to Die
Robert Yeoman — The French Dispatch
Seamus McGarvey — Cyrano
Andrew Droz Palermo — The Green Knight
Robbie Ryan — C’mon C’mon
Claire Mathon — Spencer
Edu Grau — Passing
Ruben Impens — Titane
Linus Sandgren — Don’t Look Up
Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman — Licorice Pizza
Laustsen is not that far behind Kamiński.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Frontrunners:
Joe Walker — Dune
Peter Sciberras — The Power of the Dog
Úna Ní Dhonghaíle — Belfast
Hank Corwin — Don’t Look Up
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn — West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Andy Jurgensen — Licorice Pizza
Tom Cross and Elliot Graham — No Time to Die
Pamela Martin — King Richard
Long Shots:
Cam McLauchlin — Nightmare Alley
Joshua L. Pearson — Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Geraud Brisson — CODA
Leigh Folsom Boyd and Jeffrey Ford — Spider-Man: No Way Home
The West Side Story team and Jurgensen are practically tied for the fifth spot.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Frontrunners:
Patrice Vermette and Richard Roberts, and Zsuzsanna Sipos — Dune
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau — Nightmare Alley
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo — The French Dispatch
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo — West Side Story
Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dark Horses:
Jim Clay and Claire Nina Richards — Belfast
Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson — Licorice Pizza
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer — Cyrano
Long Shots:
Grant Major and Amber Richards — The Power of the Dog
Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton — Cruella
Dennis Gassner and Mark Tildesley — No Time to Die
Victoria Allwood, Emily Norris, and Judy Farr — Last Night in Soho
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan — Spencer
Ellen Brill and Jon Hutman — Being the Ricardos
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Frontrunners:
Jenny Beavan — Cruella
Jacqueline West — Dune
Paul Tazewell — West Side Story
Luis Sequeira — Nightmare Alley
Janty Yates — House of Gucci
Dark Horse:
Massimo Cantini Parrini — Cyrano
Long Shots:
Milena Canonero — The French Dispatch
Jacqueline Durran — Spencer
Ruth E. Carter — Coming 2 America
Mark Bridges — Licorice Pizza
Charlotte Walter — Belfast
Clint Ramos — Respect
Lindsay Pugh — The Matrix Resurrections
Odile Dicks-Mireaux — Last Night in Soho
Kym Barrett — Shang–Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
For all of the above categories there are a large number of eligible nominees, including ones not mentioned. For all categories below except for Best Animated Feature, potential nominees are drawn from a 10 to 15-film shortlist. All unmentioned films or songs are no longer eligible for a nomination.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners:
Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr — Dune
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins — Cruella
Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr — House of Gucci
Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou — West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson — The Suicide Squad
Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris, and Carla Farmer — Coming 2 America
Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil — Nightmare Alley
Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi — Cyrano
Daniel Phillips — No Time to Die
There is effectively a six-film race for the final spot.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Frontrunners:
Hans Zimmer — Dune
Jonny Greenwood — The Power of the Dog
Nicholas Britell — Don’t Look Up
Alexandre Desplat — The French Dispatch
Germaine Franco — Encanto
Dark Horses:
Hans Zimmer — No Time to Die
Jonny Greenwood — Spencer
Alberto Iglesias — Parallel Mothers
Kris Bowers — King Richard
Long Shots:
Daniel Pemberton — Being the Ricardos
Carter Burwell — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jeymes Samuel — The Harder They Fall
Daniel Hart — The Green Knight
Harry Gregson-Williams — The Last Duel
Robert Aiki Aubrey Lowe — Candyman
This will be the second year in a row in which John Williams is not nominated in this category. This has not happened since 2007-2011. The only other time in the past half century when he went two years in a row without a nomination was in 1986-1987.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Frontrunners:
"No Time to Die" by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell — No Time to Die
"Just Look Up" by Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi, and Taura Stinson — Don’t Look Up
"Dos Oruguitas" by Lin-Manuel Miranda — Encanto
"Be Alive" by Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Dixson — King Richard
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)" by Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson, and Carole King — Respect
Dark Horses:
"Guns Go Bang" by Jeymes Samuel, Scott Mescudi, and Shawn Carter — The Harder They Fall
"Down to Joy" by Van Morrison — Belfast
"Somehow You Do" by Diane Warren — Four Good Days
Long Shots:
"Beyond the Shore" by Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder, and Marius de Vries — CODA
"So May We Start?" by Ron and Russell Mael — Annette
"Your Song Saved My Life" by Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen, Jr. — Sing 2
"Automatic Woman" by H.E.R. — Bruised
"Right Where I Belong" by Brian Wilson and Jim James — Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
"The Anonymous Ones" by Benj Pasek, Justin Paul, and Amandla Stenberg — Dear Evan Hansen
"Dream Girl" by Idina Menzel and Laura Veltz — Cinderella
There are a lot of people who think that the team behind Encanto goofed by pushing "Dos Oruguitas" instead of "We Don't Talk about Bruno" or "Surface Pressure."
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)," "Guns Go Bang," and "Down to Joy" are nearly tied for the final spot. "Somehow You Do" is not far behind.
Best Achievement in Sound
Frontrunners:
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett — Dune
Brian Chumney, Tod Maitland, Andy Nelson, and Gary Rydstrom — West Side Story
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, and Paul Massey — No Time to Die
Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb, and Dave Whitehead — The Power of the Dog
Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor, and Vanessa Lapato — Spider-Man: No Way Home
Dark Horses:
Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde, and Niv Adris — Belfast
Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, and Brandon Proctor — A Quiet Place Part II
Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, and Tim Cavagin — Last Night in Soho
Long Shot:
Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert, and Lars Ginzel — The Matrix Resurrections
The team behind Spider-Man: No Way Home and the team behind Tick, Tick … Boom! are nearly tied for the final spot.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer — Dune
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick — Spider-Man: No Way Home
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, and Dan Oliver — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham, and J.D. Schwalm — The Matrix Resurrections
Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould — No Time to Die
Dark Horse:
John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith, and Mike Meinardus — Godzilla vs. Kong
Long Shots:
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick — Free Guy
Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack, and Paul Corbould — Black Widow
Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken, and Neil Corbould — Eternals
Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland, and Pier Lefebvre — Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Best International Film of the Year
Frontrunners:
Japan — Drive My Car
Iran — A Hero
Norway — The Worst Person in the World
Italy — The Hand of God
Denmark — Flee
Dark Horses:
Finland — Compartment No. 6
Bhutan — Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
Long Shots:
Iceland — Lamb
Germany — I’m Your Man
Mexico — Prayers for the Stolen
Panama — Plaza Catedral
Austria — Great Freedom
Kosovo — Hive
Spain — The Good Boss
Belgium — Playground
Best Animated Feature Film
Frontrunners:
Jared Bush and Byron Howard — Encanto
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, and Chris Miller — The Mitchells vs The Machines
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren — Luca
Osnat Shurer, Don Hall, and Carlos López Estrada — Raya and the Last Dragon
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, and Signe Byrge Sørensen — Flee
Dark Horses:
Garth Jennings — Sing 2
Mamoru Hosoda — Belle
Long Shots:
Jean-Charles Ostorero, Didier Brunner, Damien Brunner, and Stéphan Roelants — The Summit of the Gods
Sarah Smith and Jean-Philippe Vine — Ron’s Gone Wrong
Kirk DeMicco — Vivo
Michaela Pavlátová — My Sunny Maad
There was a time in which there would be two or three nominations per year in this category for high-quality films from small studios. The Academy decided that big-studio films should dominate this category, so they changed the nomination procedures. If Sing 2 snags the final spot over Flee, then it is possible that all five nominated films will be from big studios.
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen — Flee
Quest Love — Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi — The Rescue
Jessica Kingdon — Ascension
Stanley Nelson — Attica
Dark Horses:
Robert Greene — Procession
Nanfu Wang — In the Same Breath
Megan Mylan — Simple as Water
Matthew Heineman — The First Wave
Todd Haynes — The Velvet Underground
Long Shots:
Jessica Beshir — Faya Dayi
Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh — Writing with Fire
Julie Cohen, Betsy West — Julia
RJ Cutler — Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Camilla Nielsson — President
Flee is a heavy favorite for a nomination in this category. It is also on the bubble for Best International Feature and Best Animated Feature. It may be the first film to be nominated in all three of these categories.
Best Animated Short Film
Frontrunners:
Zach Parrish — Us Again
Dan Ojari and Mikey Please — Robin Robin
Alberto Mielgo — The Windshield Wiper
Erick Oh — Namoo
Weijia Ma — Step into the River
Dark Horses:
Hugo Covarrubias — Bestia
Reza Riahi — The Musician
Long Shots:
Joanna Quinn and Les Mills — Affairs of the Art
Simone Giampaolo — Only a Child
Hugo de Faucompret — Mum Is Pouring Rain
Zacharias Kunuk — Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice
Claude Cloutier — Bad Seeds
Sandra Desmazieres — Flowing Home
Bastien Dubois — Souvenir Souvenir
Anton Dyakov — Boxballet
Best Documentary Short Subject
Frontrunners:
Ben Proudfoot — The Queen of Basketball
Ryan White — Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker
Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei — Three Songs for Benazir
Laura Poitras — Terror Contagion
Jay Rosenblatt — When We Were Bullies
Dark Horse:
Matt Ogens — Audible
Long Shots:
Daniel Sivan and Mor Loushy — Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
David Botti and Malachy Browne — Day of Rage
Christine Turner — Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day
Alexandria Jackson — Sophie & the Baron
Jimmy Goldblum — A Broken House
Seth Freed Wessler — The Facility
Kristy Guevara-Flanagan and Maite Zubiaurre — Águilas
Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk — Lead Me Home
Emma Francis-Snyder — Takeover
Best Live Action Short Film
Frontrunners:
Aniel Karia — The Long Goodbye
Phumi Morare — When the Sun Sets
Raphaël Rodriguez and Léo Berne — Censor of Dreams
Murad Abu Eisheh — Tala’vision
Marianne Farley — Frimas
Dark Horses:
KD Davila — Please Hold
Michiel Blanchart — You’re Dead Helen
Serhat Karaaslan — The Criminals
Long Shots:
Maria Brendle — Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Annie St. Pierre — Les Grandes Claques
Gustavo Milan — Under the Heavens
Susan Bejar — Distances
Tadeusz Lysiak — The Dress
Nicolaj Kopernikus — Stenofonen
Martin Strange-Hansen — On My Mind
I find that predictions for short films bear very little resemblance to what is actually nominated.
Summary
If all predictions are correct, which will not happen, the total nominations for feature-length films would be:
11 — Dune
10 — The Power of the Dog
10 — West Side Story
7 — Belfast
5 — Don’t Look Up
5 — King Richard
4 — House of Gucci
4 — Licorice Pizza
3 — Being the Ricardos
3 — CODA
3 — Encanto
3 — Flee
3 — Nightmare Alley
3 — No Time to Die
3 — The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 — Cruella
2 — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2 — The French Dispatch
2 — The Lost Daughter
2 — Spider-Man: No Way Home
2 — Tick, Tick … Boom!
1 — Ascension
1 — Attica
1 — Drive My Car
1 — A Hero
1 — The Hand of God
1 — Luca
1 — The Matrix Resurrections
1 — The Mitchells vs The Machines
1 — Passing
1 — Raya and the Last Dragon
1 — The Rescue
1 — Respect
1 — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
1 — Spencer
1 — Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
1 — The Worst Person in the World
For many of the technical categories, the individuals who would get the nomination may not have been finalized yet.
As always, I will tease you by starting with Best Picture even though I know that you are most interested in knowing who will be nominated for Best Live-Action Short.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Frontrunners:
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Dune
West Side Story
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Tick, Tick … Boom!
Nightmare Alley
Dark Horses:
Being the Ricardos
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
Long Shots:
No Time to Die
House of Gucci
Spencer
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Parallel Mothers
The French Dispatch
Cyrano
The Worst Person in the World
Mass
A Hero
The Green Knight
Passing
C’mon C’mon
Pig
For this year, the number of Best Picture nominations is fixed at ten as opposed to a variable number over the last several years. If there were a variable number of nominations this year, I would predict that Nightmare Alley and maybe Tick, Tick … Boom! would have been left out. Being the Ricardos and The Tragedy of Macbeth are not far behind Nightmare Alley.
Best Achievement in Directing
Frontrunners:
Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog
Denis Villeneuve — Dune
Kenneth Branagh — Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson — Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg — West Side Story
Dark Horse:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi — Drive My Car
Long Shots:
Adam McKay — Don’t Look Up
Guillermo del Toro — Nightmare Alley
Maggie Gyllenhaal — The Lost Daughter
Joel Coen — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Pedro Almodóvar — Parallel Mothers
Reinaldo Marcus Green — King Richard
Julia Ducournau — Titane
Aaron Sorkin — Being the Ricardos
Siân Heder — CODA
Ridley Scott — House of Gucci
Apichatpong Weerasethakul — Memoria
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Paul Thomas Anderson — Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh — Belfast
Adam McKay & David Sirota — Don’t Look Up
Aaron Sorkin — Being the Ricardos
Zach Baylin — King Richard
Dark Horses:
Pedro Almodóvar — Parallel Mothers
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, & Jason Schwartzman — The French Dispatch
Mike Mills — C’mon C’mon
Long Shots:
Fran Kranz — Mass
Asghar Farhadi — A Hero
Michael Sarnoski — Pig
Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch — Red Rocket
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt — The Worst Person in the World
Paolo Sorrentino — The Hand of God
Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright — Last Night in Soho
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners:
Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal — The Lost Daughter
Siân Heder — CODA
Tony Kushner — West Side Story
Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth — Dune
Dark Horses:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe — Drive My Car
Joel Coen — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Rebecca Hall — Passing
Long Shots:
Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan — Nightmare Alley
Steven Levenson — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Erica Schmidt — Cyrano
Dune and Drive My Car are nearly tied for the fifth spot.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman — The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga — House of Gucci
Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Kristen Stewart — Spencer
Dark Horses:
Penélope Cruz — Parallel Mothers
Jennifer Hudson — Respect
Alana Haim — Licorice Pizza
Rachel Zegler — West Side Story
Long Shots:
Renate Reinsve — The Worst Person in the World
Frances McDormand — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jennifer Lawrence — Don’t Look Up
Emilia Jones — CODA
Tessa Thompson — Passing
There was a time when Kristen Stewart was viewed as a clear favorite to win this award. She is now struggling just to get a nomination.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners:
Will Smith — King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch — The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Denzel Washington — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem — Being the Ricardos
Dark Horses:
Peter Dinklage — Cyrano
Leonardo DiCaprio — Don’t Look Up
Nicolas Cage — Pig
Bradley Cooper — Nightmare Alley
Long Shots:
Joaquin Phoenix — C'mon, C'mon
Mahershala Ali — Swan Song
Cooper Hoffman — Licorice Pizza
Simon Rex — Red Rocket
Clifton Collins, Jr. — Jockey
Jude Hill — Belfast
Anthony Ramos — In the Heights
Hidetoshi Nishijima — Drive My Car
Matt Damon — The Last Duel
Adam Driver — Annette
So far, Cyrano had only the minimum release in the United States necessary to be eligible for Academy Awards. I suspect that this decision may have cost Peter Dinklage an Academy Award nomination as well as a couple nominations in categories listed below.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Ariana DeBose — West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst — The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe — Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis — King Richard
Ruth Negga — Passing
Dark Horses:
Cate Blanchett — Nightmare Alley
Rita Moreno — West Side Story
Long Shots:
Marlee Matlin — CODA
Jessie Buckley — The Lost Daughter
Ann Dowd — Mass
Judi Dench — Belfast
Frances McDormand — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Olga Merediz — In the Heights
Cate Blanchett — Don’t Look Up
Riley Keough — Zola
Kathryn Hunter — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners:
Kodi Smit-McPhee — The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur — CODA
Ciaran Hinds — Belfast
Jared Leto — House of Gucci
Bradley Cooper — Licorice Pizza
Dark Horses:
Jamie Dornan — Belfast
Jesse Plemons — The Power of the Dog
Ben Affleck — The Tender Bar
J.K. Simmons — Being the Ricardos
Long Shots:
Mike Faist — West Side Story
Tony Leung — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Jeffrey Wright — The French Dispatch
Kelvin Harrison Jr. — Cyrano
Benicio del Toro — The French Dispatch
The Golden Raspberry Awards nominated Jared Leto for worst supporting actor for his performance in House of Gucci. If he is nominated here as well, this would not be the first time that an actor was nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie for the same performance. James Coco was nominated for both awards for Only When I Laugh (1981). Amy Irving was nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie for Best/Worst Supporting Actress in Yentl (1983). Most recently, Glenn Close was nominated in both categories for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy (2020).
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Frontrunners:
Greig Fraser — Dune
Ari Wegner — The Power of the Dog
Bruno Delbonnel — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Haris Zambarloukos — Belfast
Janusz Kamiński — West Side Story
Dark Horse:
Dan Laustsen — Nightmare Alley
Long Shots:
Linus Sandgren — No Time to Die
Robert Yeoman — The French Dispatch
Seamus McGarvey — Cyrano
Andrew Droz Palermo — The Green Knight
Robbie Ryan — C’mon C’mon
Claire Mathon — Spencer
Edu Grau — Passing
Ruben Impens — Titane
Linus Sandgren — Don’t Look Up
Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman — Licorice Pizza
Laustsen is not that far behind Kamiński.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Frontrunners:
Joe Walker — Dune
Peter Sciberras — The Power of the Dog
Úna Ní Dhonghaíle — Belfast
Hank Corwin — Don’t Look Up
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn — West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Andy Jurgensen — Licorice Pizza
Tom Cross and Elliot Graham — No Time to Die
Pamela Martin — King Richard
Long Shots:
Cam McLauchlin — Nightmare Alley
Joshua L. Pearson — Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Geraud Brisson — CODA
Leigh Folsom Boyd and Jeffrey Ford — Spider-Man: No Way Home
The West Side Story team and Jurgensen are practically tied for the fifth spot.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Frontrunners:
Patrice Vermette and Richard Roberts, and Zsuzsanna Sipos — Dune
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau — Nightmare Alley
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo — The French Dispatch
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo — West Side Story
Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dark Horses:
Jim Clay and Claire Nina Richards — Belfast
Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson — Licorice Pizza
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer — Cyrano
Long Shots:
Grant Major and Amber Richards — The Power of the Dog
Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton — Cruella
Dennis Gassner and Mark Tildesley — No Time to Die
Victoria Allwood, Emily Norris, and Judy Farr — Last Night in Soho
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan — Spencer
Ellen Brill and Jon Hutman — Being the Ricardos
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Frontrunners:
Jenny Beavan — Cruella
Jacqueline West — Dune
Paul Tazewell — West Side Story
Luis Sequeira — Nightmare Alley
Janty Yates — House of Gucci
Dark Horse:
Massimo Cantini Parrini — Cyrano
Long Shots:
Milena Canonero — The French Dispatch
Jacqueline Durran — Spencer
Ruth E. Carter — Coming 2 America
Mark Bridges — Licorice Pizza
Charlotte Walter — Belfast
Clint Ramos — Respect
Lindsay Pugh — The Matrix Resurrections
Odile Dicks-Mireaux — Last Night in Soho
Kym Barrett — Shang–Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
For all of the above categories there are a large number of eligible nominees, including ones not mentioned. For all categories below except for Best Animated Feature, potential nominees are drawn from a 10 to 15-film shortlist. All unmentioned films or songs are no longer eligible for a nomination.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners:
Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr — Dune
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins — Cruella
Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr — House of Gucci
Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou — West Side Story
Dark Horses:
Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson — The Suicide Squad
Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris, and Carla Farmer — Coming 2 America
Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil — Nightmare Alley
Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi — Cyrano
Daniel Phillips — No Time to Die
There is effectively a six-film race for the final spot.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Frontrunners:
Hans Zimmer — Dune
Jonny Greenwood — The Power of the Dog
Nicholas Britell — Don’t Look Up
Alexandre Desplat — The French Dispatch
Germaine Franco — Encanto
Dark Horses:
Hans Zimmer — No Time to Die
Jonny Greenwood — Spencer
Alberto Iglesias — Parallel Mothers
Kris Bowers — King Richard
Long Shots:
Daniel Pemberton — Being the Ricardos
Carter Burwell — The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jeymes Samuel — The Harder They Fall
Daniel Hart — The Green Knight
Harry Gregson-Williams — The Last Duel
Robert Aiki Aubrey Lowe — Candyman
This will be the second year in a row in which John Williams is not nominated in this category. This has not happened since 2007-2011. The only other time in the past half century when he went two years in a row without a nomination was in 1986-1987.
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Frontrunners:
"No Time to Die" by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell — No Time to Die
"Just Look Up" by Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi, and Taura Stinson — Don’t Look Up
"Dos Oruguitas" by Lin-Manuel Miranda — Encanto
"Be Alive" by Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Dixson — King Richard
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)" by Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson, and Carole King — Respect
Dark Horses:
"Guns Go Bang" by Jeymes Samuel, Scott Mescudi, and Shawn Carter — The Harder They Fall
"Down to Joy" by Van Morrison — Belfast
"Somehow You Do" by Diane Warren — Four Good Days
Long Shots:
"Beyond the Shore" by Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder, and Marius de Vries — CODA
"So May We Start?" by Ron and Russell Mael — Annette
"Your Song Saved My Life" by Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen, Jr. — Sing 2
"Automatic Woman" by H.E.R. — Bruised
"Right Where I Belong" by Brian Wilson and Jim James — Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
"The Anonymous Ones" by Benj Pasek, Justin Paul, and Amandla Stenberg — Dear Evan Hansen
"Dream Girl" by Idina Menzel and Laura Veltz — Cinderella
There are a lot of people who think that the team behind Encanto goofed by pushing "Dos Oruguitas" instead of "We Don't Talk about Bruno" or "Surface Pressure."
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)," "Guns Go Bang," and "Down to Joy" are nearly tied for the final spot. "Somehow You Do" is not far behind.
Best Achievement in Sound
Frontrunners:
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett — Dune
Brian Chumney, Tod Maitland, Andy Nelson, and Gary Rydstrom — West Side Story
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, and Paul Massey — No Time to Die
Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb, and Dave Whitehead — The Power of the Dog
Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor, and Vanessa Lapato — Spider-Man: No Way Home
Dark Horses:
Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland — Tick, Tick … Boom!
Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde, and Niv Adris — Belfast
Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, and Brandon Proctor — A Quiet Place Part II
Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, and Tim Cavagin — Last Night in Soho
Long Shot:
Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert, and Lars Ginzel — The Matrix Resurrections
The team behind Spider-Man: No Way Home and the team behind Tick, Tick … Boom! are nearly tied for the final spot.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Frontrunners:
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer — Dune
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick — Spider-Man: No Way Home
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, and Dan Oliver — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham, and J.D. Schwalm — The Matrix Resurrections
Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould — No Time to Die
Dark Horse:
John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith, and Mike Meinardus — Godzilla vs. Kong
Long Shots:
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick — Free Guy
Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack, and Paul Corbould — Black Widow
Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken, and Neil Corbould — Eternals
Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland, and Pier Lefebvre — Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Best International Film of the Year
Frontrunners:
Japan — Drive My Car
Iran — A Hero
Norway — The Worst Person in the World
Italy — The Hand of God
Denmark — Flee
Dark Horses:
Finland — Compartment No. 6
Bhutan — Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
Long Shots:
Iceland — Lamb
Germany — I’m Your Man
Mexico — Prayers for the Stolen
Panama — Plaza Catedral
Austria — Great Freedom
Kosovo — Hive
Spain — The Good Boss
Belgium — Playground
Best Animated Feature Film
Frontrunners:
Jared Bush and Byron Howard — Encanto
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, and Chris Miller — The Mitchells vs The Machines
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren — Luca
Osnat Shurer, Don Hall, and Carlos López Estrada — Raya and the Last Dragon
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, and Signe Byrge Sørensen — Flee
Dark Horses:
Garth Jennings — Sing 2
Mamoru Hosoda — Belle
Long Shots:
Jean-Charles Ostorero, Didier Brunner, Damien Brunner, and Stéphan Roelants — The Summit of the Gods
Sarah Smith and Jean-Philippe Vine — Ron’s Gone Wrong
Kirk DeMicco — Vivo
Michaela Pavlátová — My Sunny Maad
There was a time in which there would be two or three nominations per year in this category for high-quality films from small studios. The Academy decided that big-studio films should dominate this category, so they changed the nomination procedures. If Sing 2 snags the final spot over Flee, then it is possible that all five nominated films will be from big studios.
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen — Flee
Quest Love — Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi — The Rescue
Jessica Kingdon — Ascension
Stanley Nelson — Attica
Dark Horses:
Robert Greene — Procession
Nanfu Wang — In the Same Breath
Megan Mylan — Simple as Water
Matthew Heineman — The First Wave
Todd Haynes — The Velvet Underground
Long Shots:
Jessica Beshir — Faya Dayi
Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh — Writing with Fire
Julie Cohen, Betsy West — Julia
RJ Cutler — Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Camilla Nielsson — President
Flee is a heavy favorite for a nomination in this category. It is also on the bubble for Best International Feature and Best Animated Feature. It may be the first film to be nominated in all three of these categories.
Best Animated Short Film
Frontrunners:
Zach Parrish — Us Again
Dan Ojari and Mikey Please — Robin Robin
Alberto Mielgo — The Windshield Wiper
Erick Oh — Namoo
Weijia Ma — Step into the River
Dark Horses:
Hugo Covarrubias — Bestia
Reza Riahi — The Musician
Long Shots:
Joanna Quinn and Les Mills — Affairs of the Art
Simone Giampaolo — Only a Child
Hugo de Faucompret — Mum Is Pouring Rain
Zacharias Kunuk — Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice
Claude Cloutier — Bad Seeds
Sandra Desmazieres — Flowing Home
Bastien Dubois — Souvenir Souvenir
Anton Dyakov — Boxballet
Best Documentary Short Subject
Frontrunners:
Ben Proudfoot — The Queen of Basketball
Ryan White — Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker
Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei — Three Songs for Benazir
Laura Poitras — Terror Contagion
Jay Rosenblatt — When We Were Bullies
Dark Horse:
Matt Ogens — Audible
Long Shots:
Daniel Sivan and Mor Loushy — Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
David Botti and Malachy Browne — Day of Rage
Christine Turner — Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day
Alexandria Jackson — Sophie & the Baron
Jimmy Goldblum — A Broken House
Seth Freed Wessler — The Facility
Kristy Guevara-Flanagan and Maite Zubiaurre — Águilas
Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk — Lead Me Home
Emma Francis-Snyder — Takeover
Best Live Action Short Film
Frontrunners:
Aniel Karia — The Long Goodbye
Phumi Morare — When the Sun Sets
Raphaël Rodriguez and Léo Berne — Censor of Dreams
Murad Abu Eisheh — Tala’vision
Marianne Farley — Frimas
Dark Horses:
KD Davila — Please Hold
Michiel Blanchart — You’re Dead Helen
Serhat Karaaslan — The Criminals
Long Shots:
Maria Brendle — Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Annie St. Pierre — Les Grandes Claques
Gustavo Milan — Under the Heavens
Susan Bejar — Distances
Tadeusz Lysiak — The Dress
Nicolaj Kopernikus — Stenofonen
Martin Strange-Hansen — On My Mind
I find that predictions for short films bear very little resemblance to what is actually nominated.
Summary
If all predictions are correct, which will not happen, the total nominations for feature-length films would be:
11 — Dune
10 — The Power of the Dog
10 — West Side Story
7 — Belfast
5 — Don’t Look Up
5 — King Richard
4 — House of Gucci
4 — Licorice Pizza
3 — Being the Ricardos
3 — CODA
3 — Encanto
3 — Flee
3 — Nightmare Alley
3 — No Time to Die
3 — The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 — Cruella
2 — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2 — The French Dispatch
2 — The Lost Daughter
2 — Spider-Man: No Way Home
2 — Tick, Tick … Boom!
1 — Ascension
1 — Attica
1 — Drive My Car
1 — A Hero
1 — The Hand of God
1 — Luca
1 — The Matrix Resurrections
1 — The Mitchells vs The Machines
1 — Passing
1 — Raya and the Last Dragon
1 — The Rescue
1 — Respect
1 — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
1 — Spencer
1 — Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
1 — The Worst Person in the World