93rd Academy Awards thread

In 2017 and 2018, I had seen every film nominated in each of the categories in the Academy Awards. In 2019, I saw every film nominated in each of the categories except for Corpus Cristi in the Best International Film category. In 2020, I have seen all of the short films, but there are 12 films with 18 total nominations that I have yet to see, including all five films in the Best International Film category.

I doubt that it would be news to anyone to say that 2020 was a weird year. This makes predicting difficult. For example, I have been trying to predict Academy Award nominations for several years. The prediction for Best Picture nominations at the top of this page was by far the worst that I have done. If this carries over to the awards, we might have an interesting night.

Here are some of my thoughts and predictions.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Will Win: Nomadland
Might Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, or Promising Young Woman
My Choice: Nomadland

Two years ago, I wrote:
Last year, I forgot about the above quote before writing:
This year, I remember the previous two quotes as I note that The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning the SAG award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast could simply reflect the fact that it is an ensemble, whereas Nomadland is mostly a one-woman film with only one other professional actor in the main cast.

Over the last five years, there either has not been a favorite for Best Picture (2015, 2017), or one film appeared to be pulling away only for another film to score an upset (2016, 2018, 2019). I think that this year will be different. In 2016, 2018, and 2019; there was a point in the race when there appeared to be no clear favorite. One film then seemed to pull ahead only for another one of the former co-favorites to appear in the envelope, at least once the presenters received the correct envelope. We have not had as clear a favorite as Nomadland since 2013's 12 Years a Slave.

Nomadland is not merely my favorite of the nominated films but it is also my overall favorite narrative feature film from 2020.

Best Achievement in Directing
Will Win: Chloé Zhao—Nomadland
Might Win: Anyone other than Zhao would be a huge upset.
My Choice: Chloé Zhao—Nomadland

If anything, Zhao is an even bigger favorite in this race than her film is in the Best Picture race. She would be only the second female director to win and the first woman of color. This will help with gender diversity in this category. However, very few people have noted that seven of the previous eight winners in this category were either Mexican or of Asian descent.

I have not seen Another Round, so I cannot judge Thomas Vinterberg's work.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Emerald Fennell—Promising Young Woman
Might Win: Aaron Sorkin—The Trial of the Chicago 7
My Choice: Emerald Fennell—Promising Young Woman

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Chloé Zhao—Nomadland
Might Win: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller—The Father
My Choice: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller—The Father

No woman has won either screenplay award since Diablo Cody for 2007's Juno. When I first heard this, I thought that it was no woman has won either screenplay award solo since then, but no woman has even been part of a writing team since then either.

I have not seen One Night in Miami or Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, so I cannot judge their merits.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Viola Davis—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Might Win: Carey Mulligan—Promising Young Woman or Frances McDormand—Nomadland
My Choice: Frances McDormand—Nomadland

Some prognosticators have said that nothing is certain in this race. This is false. There is reasonably strong consensus that Vanessa Kirby will not, repeat will NOT win this award. That is the full extent of the consensus. I also suspect that prognosticators are greatly overrating Andra Day's Golden Globe award. I doubt that anyone really understands why the Golden Globes are taken seriously. I have not seen The United States vs. Billie Holiday, so I cannot judge Day's performance.

Frances McDormand has the benefit of actually having the best performance by an actress in a leading role. After all, there appears to be consensus that Nomadland is the best film. What does Nomadland have going for it other than McDormand's performance? OK, the cinematography was great, but that is it. How can the best film be carried so much by a single acting performance without that performance being the best? Her problem is that she has already won two Best Actress awards, and the Academy may want to give it to someone else for a change.

Viola Davis was good, and she seems to have the most momentum. One of the things that I did not like about her film was that, despite the title, there was not much Ma Rainey. According to Gold Derby's analysis of screen times for Best Actress Nominees and Best Supporting Actress Nominees, Davis had 39 seconds more screen time than Yuh-jung Youn and less than Olivia Colman and Maria Bakalova in their films. Yuh-jung Youn, Olivia Colman, and Maria Bakalova are all nominated in the supporting category. Davis has one Academy Award, but that was for Best Supporting Actress, albeit in a role that probably had more screen time than her current role.

Also, *SPOILER ALERT* Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is an overwhelming favorite in three other categories, including Best Actor. Four Academy Awards, including two in major categories, is a very big haul for a film that the Academy did not like enough to nominate for Best Picture.

Carey Mulligan was also very good, and she appeals to voters who want to give the award to someone new. She is still young, so I can see other voters thinking that they will have the opportunity to give her an award sometime later.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Might Win: Anthony Hopkins—The Father
My Choice: Anthony Hopkins—The Father

Hopkins gave the best performance by an actor in a leading role, but that will probably not be enough for a win. It does not help that he already has a Best Actor award. Meanwhile, unlike with Mulligan, there will sadly not be another chance to give Boseman an award. I did not like his performance. It was far too much a stage performance rather than a film performance. He seemed to spend much of the film projecting to the back row. This was a problem with nearly all the film's performances, so I blame the director, not Boseman.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn—Minari
Might Win: Anyone other than Yuh-Jung Youn would be a huge upset.
My Choice: Olivia Colman—The Father

I would vote for Colman, but Yuh-Jung Youn would be a worthy winner.

At one time, this category was even messier than the Best Actress category. Each of the five nominees were considered to be a front runner at some point. However, Yuh-Jung Youn appears to have a lot of momentum, so she is now the heavy favorite. It helps that this is probably the most likely win for Minari, a film that the Academy likes.

Hillbilly Elegy is a pretty obvious Oscar-bait film. However, if it wanted to win Academy Awards, it needed to cast lead actresses other than Amy Adams and Glenn Close, who, prior to this year, had 13 nominations between them and lost all of them. Barring a major upset, their combined record will be 0-14 by the end of the night.

I have not seen Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, so I cannot judge Maria Bakalova's performance.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya—Judas and the Black Messiah
Might Win: Anyone other than Kaluuya would be a huge upset.
My Choice: Daniel Kaluuya—Judas and the Black Messiah

I might as well get this out of the way. If neither the actor who played the "Judas" nor the actor who played "the Black Messiah" is the lead actor, who is? Is it the actor who played "and?"

According to Gold Derby's analysis of screen times for Best Actor Nominees and Best Supporting Actor Nominees, Lakeith Stanfield has more screen time than Best Lead Actor nominee Steven Yeun and both Kaluuya and Stanfield have more screen time than Best Lead Actor favorite Chadwick Boseman.

Ordinarily, I prefer subtle performances to flashy performances, but I still liked Kaluuya's performance. He did a great job in capturing his character's charisma.

I have not seen One Night in Miami, so I cannot judge Leslie Odom Jr.'s performance, although I have heard good things about it.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will Win: Joshua James Richards—Nomadland
Might Win: Erik Messerschmidt—Mank
My Choice: Joshua James Richards—Nomadland

Other than Frances McDormand's performance, Richards's cinematography is probably the best part of Nomadland. Academy voters like black and white photography, so Messerschmidt has a chance.

Best Achievement in Film Editing
Will Win: Mikkel E.G. Nielsen—Sound of Metal
Might Win: Alan Baumgarten—The Trial of the Chicago 7
My Choice: Yorgos Lamprinos—The Father

This appears to be the closest two-way race. Apparently, the winner of this category usually also wins a sound category. Sound of Metal is the overwhelming favorite there, which suggests that it will win here as well. Meanwhile, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is well liked, and this is its best chance at a win.

Believe it or not, Chloé Zhao is not expected to win this category.

Best Achievement in Production Design
Will Win: Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale—Mank
Might Win: Anyone else would be a major upset.
My Choice: Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone—The Father

I often base my choices on the extent to which an element contributes to the storytelling. The way that the props and other items in The Father would change from scene to scene helped show the advancement of the title character's dementia. I like seeing things like that in Oscar winners.

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Will Win: Ann Roth—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Might Win: Alexandra Byrne—Emma.
My Choice: Bina Daigeler—Mulan

Ann Roth would be the second-oldest Academy Award winner ever.

The vast majority of films that have won this category have taken place in the past. As a result, the title of one of the films in this category is "Emma." and not "Emma" with the period at the end showing that it is a period piece. Yes, there is a hidden pun in the title.

While not relevant to the costumes, I heard a weird thing about Mulan, so I might as well share it here. Apparently, there was an actress that the filmmakers really wanted to appear. The problem was that filming for her intended character would take about a month, and she was committed to a television show that was filming its last season at the same time. Believe it or not, she actually chose to remain loyal to her television show and instead had just a cameo in Mulan. I did not think that actors actually stuck by their contracts.

I have not seen the latest version of "Pinocchio," so I cannot judge its costumes.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Matiki Anoff, Mia Neal, and Larry M. Cherry—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Might Win: Anyone else would be a major upset.
My Choice: I am very tempted to vote for Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, and Francesco Pegoretti for Pinocchio even though I have not seen the film.

Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Will Win: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross—Soul
Might Win: Anyone else would be a major upset.
My Choice: I have no preference

Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Will Win: Daniel Pemberton and Celeste ("Hear My Voice")—One Night in Miami
Might Win: Savan Kotecha, Rickard Goransson, fat max Gsus ("Húsavík")—Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga or Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi ("Io Si (Seen)")—The Life Ahead
My Choice: Savan Kotecha, Rickard Goransson, fat max Gsus ("Húsavík")—Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Again, I have a preference for nominations that actually are a part of the storytelling regardless of whether they work out of context. "Húsavík" is the clear choice in this regard. The fact that it may be the best of the five songs on its own is a bonus, although I also like "Io Si," and Diane Warren is overdue for a win.

I have not seen One Night in Miami, but I have heard the song on YouTube, so I can judge at least the song's merits. It, and the other two nominees, are generic inspirational "keep-up-the-fight" songs that could be traded around without anyone noticing.

Best Achievement in Sound
Will Win: Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana—Sound of Metal
Might Win: Anyone else would be a major upset.
My Choice: Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana—Sound of Metal

I was not the only person to notice that a film with the word, "Sound," in its title is nominated for Best Sound. This has happened two other times (Breaking the Sound Barrier and The Sound of Music). In both instances, the film won. At least in this case, Sound of Metal is a worthy choice. The crew did a good job in showing us what the main character could or could not hear.

This is the first year with just one sound category. In previous years, one of the categories was thought of as being for music with the other for war or action films. It may take a few years before we can tell if this merged category will be seen as more of a music category or a war and action film category.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Will Win: Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers—Tenet
Might Win: Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon—The Midnight Sky
My Choice: Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers—Tenet

I have not seen The One and Only Ivan, so I cannot judge its visual effects.

I suspect that I am voting for Tenet because it was the only one of the five films that I saw on a big screen. I wonder if the voters know how many practical effects were in the film. For example, that was a real plane that crashed into the building.

Best International Film of the Year
Will Win: Denmark—Another Round
Might Win: Bosnia and Herzegovina—Quo Vadis, Aida?
My Choice: None of these films has played in a theater near me or appeared on a streaming service that I subscribe to.

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Pete Docter and Dana Murray—Soul
Might Win: Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, and Jonas Rivera—Wolfwalkers
My Choice: Pete Docter and Dana Murray—Soul

This was not a particularly good year for animated features. In a typical year, I could see Soul and Wolfwalkers getting nominations. In good years, there would be five better films.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Pippa Ehrlich and James Reed—My Octopus Teacher
Might Win: Lauren Domino, Kellen Quinn, and Garrett Bradley—Time
My Choice: Pippa Ehrlich and James Reed—My Octopus Teacher

This was a good year for documentary features.

Far too often, documentaries are judged by the importance of their topic rather than how well they are made. I am glad that My Octopus Teacher is getting so much attention even though it is about a man's relationship with an octopus. It is beautifully shot, and its title character may become the most beloved eight-limbed creature since Charlotte in Charlotte's Web.

I am also very fond of Crip Camp. My Octopus Teacher and Crip Camp are the reasons why I said that Nomadland is my favorite narrative feature film of the year. I have not seen Collective or Time, but I have heard good things about both.

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Michael Govier and Will McCormack—"If Anything Happens I Love You"
Might Win: Madeline Sharafian—"Burrow"
My Choice: Michael Govier and Will McCormack—"If Anything Happens I Love You"

Above, I noted that My Octopus Teacher and Crip Camp are the reasons why I said that Nomadland is my favorite narrative feature film of the year. "If Anything Happens I Love You" is the reason why Nomadland is my favorite narrative feature film of the year. All film is visual, but animation is especially visual. Many of the best animated shorts (and a few of the best animated features) can tell a story without dialogue. "If Anything Happens I Love You" is especially good at doing so. It is one of the most emotionally resonant films of the year regardless of length.

Some people think that "Burrow" has the best chance of staging an upset. I suspect that this is because they believe that Disney/Pixar dominates the Animated Short category the way that it dominates the Animated Feature category.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: Sophia Nahli Allison—"A Love Song for Latasha"
Might Win: Kris Bowers and Ben Proudfoot—"A Concerto Is a Conversation"
My Choice: Anthony Giacchino—"Colette"

This category and Best Editing appear to be the closest two-way races this year.

Above, I noted that film is a visual medium. If the prognosticators are correct, voters for this category do not understand this. "A Love Song for Latasha" is not a film. It is an audio diary with random images attached. If I had my eyes closed during the entire film, I would miss nothing except for some text at the end. I get that the subject of the film is dead, that there are no home movies of her, and that the "filmmakers" did not want to show footage of her murder. This just means that film is the wrong medium for the story.

"A Concerto Is a Conversation" is not much better. It at least has talking head footage, but I found its tight close ups to be irritating, and some of the reaction shots felt phony. There was also too much of Kris Bowers bragging about his concerto or his doing the music for Green Book.

Meanwhile, a review of "Colette" noted that the filmmaker knew when to pull away from the subjects of the film to give them space. I would go farther. I would say that the filmmaker actually knew how to shoot a film. He did a great job at making the two subjects of the film very compelling, although I strongly suspect that they are compelling in real life.

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe—"Two Distant Strangers"
Might Win: Elvira Lind—"The Letter Room"
My Choice: Doug Roland—"Feeling Through"

There are two useful heuristics in predicting this category. The first is that if there is only one film in English, it usually wins. Three of this year's films are in English, so this heuristic does not apply. The other is that if a film contains an actor that people have heard of, that film usually wins. Oscar Issac and Alia Shawkat star in "The Letter Room." This should be the favorite, but many prognosticators think that the winner will be "Two Distant Strangers." I confess that I am quite ignorant when it comes to popular music, so it is possible that Joey Bada$$ is also someone well known. If he is, prognosticators may be right.

Before reading other people's predictions, I would have thought that "Feeling Through" would have had a better chance. Its claim to being the first film staring an actor who is deaf and blind (a.k.a. "DeafBlind") seemed to be a good hook.

"Two Distant Strangers" is probably the second-best time-loop story that I have seen in the past nine to ten months.

I hadn't read this post in its entirety yet, and I literally just came into this thread to ask this exact question. If both Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield were nominated as supporting actors, who the hell was the lead? The FBI guy? Just... what??



Either way, this was such an obvious win, that I hope the other nominated actors weren't too upset by losing. I haven't seen One Night in Miami yet, either, but I adored Leslie Odom Jr. in Hamilton. Amazing performance! But, well, no Oscar for him yet. Seems like he still has to wait for it... 

I’ve heard this one is disturbing but an interesting watch!

I'm really glad to say that both best original and best adapted screenplay went to worthy winners this year. The script for The Father is insane! Plus, incredible performance by Anthony Hopkins.

Not a movie to watch when you're feeling particularly tired, though, or plan to do something on the side. This movie needs your full attention and it's STILL hard to follow. (Which, of course, is exactly the point. But still...)