92nd Academy Awards thread

In each of the last two years, I had seen every film nominated in each of the categories in the Academy Awards. This year, I will fall short. At this moment, I have not seen two of the nominees for Best Documentary Short—"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)" and "Life Overtakes Me." I plan to see those not long before the ceremonies. I have also not seen Corpus Cristi in the Best International Film category. I do not know when or if I will have a chance to see that film.

Here are some of my thoughts and predictions.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Will Win: 1917
Might Win: Just about anybody but Marriage Story, Little Women, or Ford v Ferrari
My Choice: The Irishman
This year is looking like the last few years in which the Best Picture award was not that predictable. For example, before the SAG awards were presented, I would have wrote that Parasite seems to be fading as a contender for the award. Now, it is taken very seriously, although the win could just be SAG's usual pattern of preferring ensemble films over films focusing on one or two stars such as 1917.

After writing the draft of the paragraph above, I looked over some of my old film posts and found this: In other words, this year is looking like last year.

At one time, people thought that this category was a race between Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood and The Irishman with Parasite as a dark horse. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood and, especially, The Irishman appear to be losing momentum for real. Right now, 1917 has most of the momentum and is now the front runner. Parasite is close behind. The nominations suggest that the Academy really likes Joker, and there is also a lot of love for Jojo Rabbit. This has not been an easy category to predict over the last few years, so I can see any film mentioned in this paragraph being the eventual winner.

Best Achievement in Directing
Will Win: Sam Mendes—1917
Might Win: Bong Joon Ho—Parasite
My Choice: Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
In five of the past six years, picking the winner in this category was easy: just pick the Mexican director. Some people think that one can replace "Mexican" with "South Korean." It is possible, but I am skeptical. If the Best Picture and Director awards are split between two films, I suspect the split to go the opposite direction.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han—Parasite
Might Win: Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Choice: Rian Johnson—Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Greta Gerwig—Little Women
Might Win: Taika Waititi—Jojo Rabbit
My Choice: The Irishman—Steven Zaillian
Gerwig and Waititi are practically tied. If anything, Waititi has a slight lead, but I suspect that this will be a consolation prize for Gerwig not being nominated for Best Director. On the other hand, this is Jojo Rabbit's best chance at a win, whereas Little Women has a good chance at a Best Costume award.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Renée Zellweger—Judy
My Choice: Scarlett Johansson—Marriage Story

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
My Choice: Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Before the nominations came out, I thought that Driver had a good chance of winning. It is clear that the Academy likes Joker, so that should carry Phoenix to victory. If he does win, the Joker will be only the second role to win two Academy Awards.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Laura Dern—Marriage Story
My Choice: Margot Robbie—Bombshell
Out of over 30 articles trying to predict this years winners, I found two that thought that someone other than Dern would win this category. This is two more than the number of articles that thought that someone other than Phoenix, Zellweger, or Pitt would win their categories.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Brad Pitt—Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
My Choice: Joe Pesci—The Irishman
I wonder how many of the people who vote for this award think that this would be Pitt's first Academy Award. It would be his first for acting, but his first overall was for producing 12 Years a Slave. One thing that I find very amusing is that several prognosticators are citing Pitt's entertaining acceptance speeches at other ceremonies as a reason why he is likely to win here.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins—1917
My Choice: Roger Deakins—1917
Unlike in the categories above, I think that the Academy will actually get this one right. This category has just about as much suspense as the acting categories.

Best Achievement in Film Editing
Will Win: Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker—Ford v Ferrari
Might Win: Jinmo Yang—Parasite
My Choice: Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker—Ford v Ferrari

Best Achievement in Production Design
Will Win: Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Might Win: Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales—1917
My Choice: Ha-jun Lee and Won-Woo Cho—Parasite

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Will Win: Jacqueline Durran—Little Women
Might Win: Arianne Phillips—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Choice: Mayes C. Rubeo—Jojo Rabbit
Little Women is the only film in this category that does not take place in the past 80 years, so it is obviously the only choice. My preference is for Jojo Rabbit based on the critical importance of a pair of shoes.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker—Bombshell
Might Win: Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou— Joker
My Choice: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker—Bombshell
The trend over the last couple of years has been to give this award to the film that makes an actor look like the real world person she or he is portraying. This suggests that Bombshell would be the favorite. However, I think that there may be enough love for Joker for this category to go that direction.

Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Will Win: Hildur Guðnadóttir—Joker
Might Win: Thomas Newman—1917
My Choice: I have no preference
Thomas Newman is currently on a very long losing streak.

Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
Will Win: Elton John and Bernie Taupin ("I'm Gonna Love Me Again")—Rocketman
My Choice: Cynthia Erivo and Joshuah Brian Campbell ("Stand Up")—Harriet
This category is not as certain as the acting or cinematography categories, but it is close. Elton John already has an Academy Award for "Can You Feel the Love Tonight," but he keeps reminding people that this song is the first time he has ever won an award with Bernie Taupin. Apparently, that story is resonating with voters.

If Cynthia Erivo wins either here or for Best Actress, she would become the youngest person to achieve an EGOT (win an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and a Tony).

I am not 100% certain, but I think that Breakthrough, which is nominated in this category, is the only film nominated for an Academy Award this year that was directed by someone who also directed episodes of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.—Roxann Dawson directed "Eye Spy," "Ragtag," and "Who You Really Are."

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Will Win: Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson—1917
Might Win: Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven Morrow—Ford v Ferrari
My Choice: Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven Morrow—Ford v Ferrari

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Will Win: Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate—1917
Might Win: Donald Sylvester—Ford v Ferrari
My Choice: Donald Sylvester—Ford v Ferrari

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Will Win: Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, Dominic Tuohy—1917
Might Win: Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken, and Daniel Sudick—Avengers: Endgame
My Choice: Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken, and Daniel Sudick—Avengers: Endgame

Best International Film of the Year
Will Win: South Korea—Parasite
My Choice: North Macedonia—Honeyland
There is just as much doubt about this result as there is in the acting and cinematography categories.

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, and Jonas Rivera—Toy Story 4
Might Win: Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, and Marisa Roman—Klaus
My Choice: Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, and Jonas Rivera—Toy Story 4
Klaus was nominated in the slot that I predicted would go to Frozen II. It could have been worse. If instead, Abominable were nominated for the slot that I predicted would go to I Lost My Body, this would have meant that the nominees would have included three films that were part of franchises that started with two characters meeting or reuniting and becoming inseparable only for them to separate in the current installment (Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, and Toy Story 4) and two films about people trying to escort a Yeti/Sasquatch to the Himalayas (Missing Link and Abominable). This says a lot about the state of animated films in 2019, especially since these trends go back at least to 2018's Ralph Breaks the Internet and Smallfoot respectively.

I wonder if Frozen II's surprise omission (I hate the use of the word, "snub," in this context) came from a push by Disney on its employees to focus on Toy Story 4 in this category and reduce competition. If Klaus were the beneficiary of this move, it might backfire as Klaus has a lot of momentum.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert—American Factory
Might Win: Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev—Honeyland or Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts—For Sama
My Choice: Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev—Honeyland
I suspect that American Factory is the favorite in part because some people believe that Barack and Michelle Obama would receive the award. They merely run the production company.

I do not live in some backwater where theaters show only the blockbusters. I live near six theaters with 25 screens between them all devoted to showing art films, including documentaries. In addition, there are several multiplexes near me that usually have a couple of screens each devoted to art films. Despite this, I have to make Honeyland my choice as it was the only nominated film in this category that played in any one of these theaters. (Fortunately, it is a good film that would be a worthy winner.) The Academy Awards are for films that are meant to be shown on screens measured in feet (or meters), not in inches (or centimeters).

Meanwhile, the films that did get into theaters and connect with audiences do not get nominated. Over the past year, music documentaries seemed to be the most popular. Films like Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice, Echo in the Canyon, Western Stars, Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles, Pavarotti, David Crosby: Remember My Name, and Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love all played near me, and most played for several weeks across multiple screens, suggesting that they were popular. None of these films were nominated and not because of lack of quality.

To be fair, all the nominees in this category are very good. I would have seen them if they played around me. However, the fact that they did not play in any of my local theaters suggests that either the distributors or the theater owners did not think that they would connect with audiences. Many of the screens around me are owned by theaters that boycott Netflix films, but others are willing to show Netflix films like Roma, Dolemite Is My Name, The Irishman, and Marriage Story.

Over the last couple of months, the news media in the United States has been dominated by one single event. This coverage may be important, but it drowns out other important issues. For example, the Syrian army looks like it is about to finish off the resistance to the current regime. This would be horrible, mostly because the regime itself is horrible, but it would also mean that the people who nominate films in this category might have to find another topic to nominate.

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver—"Hair Love"
Might Win: Rosana Sullivan, Kathryn Hendrickson—"Kitbull"
My Choice: Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver—"Hair Love"
Between this category and the Live Action Short Film category, there are films called "Daughter" ("Dcera"), "Sister," "Brotherhood," and "A Sister" ("Une soeur"). I suspect that there might be a theme somewhere.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva—"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)"
My Choice: Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt—"Walk Run Cha-Cha"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha" is only a placeholder until I have a chance to see "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)" and "Life Overtakes Me." I may edit this part once I see those two films. "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)" was very good, but I think that I will stick with "Walk Run Cha-Cha" as my pick.

So far, "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)" appears to be about as strong a favorite as Laura Dern in the Best Supporting Actress category, except that short film categories are tough to predict.

Continuing on a point I made for the Best Documentary Features, there are two different theaters near me showing the documentary shorts. The reason why I was unable to see two of the shorts is that the showing of those two sold out over 24 hours before the start time, forcing me to have to wait until this weekend. The showing of the three documentary shorts that I have seen also sold out, but I was able to get a ticket before then. There is a market in my area for good documentaries.

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Marshall Curry—"The Neighbors' Window"
Might Win: Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon—"Brotherhood"
My Choice: Delphine Girard—"Une soeur"
It would be a bit misleading to say that there are as many American films in this category as there are Tunisian films. Both Tunisian films are in Arabic and take place in Tunisia. Only one of the American films is in English and takes place in the United States. The other is in Spanish and takes place in Guatemala.

There are a couple of biases in awards for this category. One is that films that include actors that the Academy has heard of have an advantage. The other is that if there is only one English-language film, it has an advantage. "The Neighbors' Window" is the only English-language film in this category and stars Maria Dizzia. Dizzia may not be well known for film roles, but she is known on Broadway.